Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (100%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Solana Up or Down - November 9, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Up (75%) · Up at 0.1¢ · $89 held · ended Nov 9

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

Up 75%

Total Value

$88.85

Combined PnL

$14.19

Research grade

AvoidUp at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down2 traders

Total Value$57.71

Total Shares57

Combined PnL+$5.03

Up6 traders

Total Value$31.14

Total Shares183

Combined PnL+$9.15

Down — 25%Up — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 78.4¢	$50.82	$55.69	+$4.87	—
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Upavg 29.9¢	$8.99	$15.02	+$6.03	—
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 9.3¢	$5.6	$6.3	+$0.7	—
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Upavg 7.3¢	$2.55	$3.68	+$1.13	—
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 7.4¢	$2.12	$3	+$0.88	—
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 92¢	$1.86	$2.02	+$0.16	—
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 7¢	$1.33	$1.99	+$0.66	—
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100	Upavg 14¢	$1.4	$1.15	-$0.25	—

13897651<$100

Down

Invested

$50.82

Value

$55.69

PnL

+$4.87

Record

—

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$8.99

Value

$15.02

PnL

+$6.03

Record

—

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$5.6

Value

$6.3

PnL

+$0.7

Record

—

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Invested

$2.55

Value

$3.68

PnL

+$1.13

Record

—

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$2.12

Value

PnL

+$0.88

Record

—

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$1.86

Value

$2.02

PnL

+$0.16

Record

—

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$1.33

Value

$1.99

PnL

+$0.66

Record

—

asdcaxzCTR<$100

Invested

$1.4

Value

$1.15

PnL

-$0.25

Record

—

Research grade

AvoidUp at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8806.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

8906.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.