Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (100%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Solana Up or Down - November 9, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Up (63%) · Up at 0.1¢ · $77 held · ended Nov 9

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

Up 63%

Total Value

$77.44

Combined PnL

$8.4

Research grade

AvoidUp at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down3 traders

Total Value$47.37

Total Shares48

Combined PnL+$4.77

Up5 traders

Total Value$30.08

Total Shares129

Combined PnL+$3.64

Down — 38%Up — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 76.6¢	$19.15	$24.99	+$5.84	—
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 39¢	$15.65	$20.07	+$4.41	—
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 96¢	$20.37	$18.38	-$1.99	—
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 11.7¢	$6.84	$7.4	+$0.56	—
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 77¢	$3.08	$4	+$0.92	—
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 20¢	$2	$1.05	-$0.95	—
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 4.5¢	$1.05	$1.04	-$0	—
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 6.1¢	$0.9	$0.52	-$0.38	—

asdcaxz<$100

Down

Invested

$19.15

Value

$24.99

PnL

+$5.84

Record

—

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$15.65

Value

$20.07

PnL

+$4.41

Record

—

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$20.37

Value

$18.38

PnL

-$1.99

Record

—

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$6.84

Value

$7.4

PnL

+$0.56

Record

—

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$3.08

Value

PnL

+$0.92

Record

—

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

Value

$1.05

PnL

-$0.95

Record

—

0x50f7CTR<$100

Invested

$1.05

Value

$1.04

PnL

-$0

Record

—

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$0.9

Value

$0.52

PnL

-$0.38

Record

—

Research grade

AvoidUp at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8806.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

8906.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.