Solana Up or Down - November 9, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Up (67%) · Up at 91¢ · $64 held · ends Nov 9

Up91¢Down9¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 67%

Total Value

$64.1

Combined PnL

-$1.71

Research grade

NeutralUp at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up91%

Down9%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up4 traders

Total Value$53.87

Total Shares66

Combined PnL-$2.13

Down2 traders

Total Value$10.23

Total Shares28

Combined PnL+$0.42

Up — 67%Down — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 76.9¢	$33.09	$29.48	-$3.61	—
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 77.1¢	$11.87	$13.14	+$1.27	—
AS asdcaxz<$100	Upavg 80¢	$10.8	$9.6	+$0.2	—
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Downavg 22¢	$9.45	$9.23	-$0.22	—
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 82¢	$1.64	$1.65	+$0.01	—
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 18¢	$0.36	$1	+$0.64	—

ply-pm2<$100

Invested

$33.09

Value

$29.48

PnL

-$3.61

Record

—

13897651<$100

Invested

$11.87

Value

$13.14

PnL

+$1.27

Record

—

asdcaxz<$100

Invested

$10.8

Value

$9.6

PnL

+$0.2

Record

—

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$9.45

Value

$9.23

PnL

-$0.22

Record

—

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$1.64

Value

$1.65

PnL

+$0.01

Record

—

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$0.36

Value

PnL

+$0.64

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralUp at 91%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.5%

91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.