Solana Up or Down - November 9, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET

12 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Up (92%) · Up at 100¢ · $294 held · ended Nov 9

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 92%

Total Value

$294.36

Combined PnL

-$5.49

Smart Money Entry

92.6¢ → 100¢

+8% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 13 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up12 traders

Total Value$291.99

Total Shares291

Combined PnL-$6.35

Down1 trader

Total Value$2.37

Total Shares22

Combined PnL+$0.86

Up — 92%Down — 8%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 99¢	$106.93	$107.47	+$0.54	—
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 83.5¢	$39.5	$36.56	-$2.94	—
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 85¢	$33.32	$32.03	-$1.29	—
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Upavg 82.4¢	$27.1	$28.15	+$1.05	—
BoneOhio<$100	Upavg 99¢	$22.75	$22.87	+$0.11	—
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 99¢	$21.02	$21.12	+$0.11	—
AS asdcaxz<$100	Upavg 85.5¢	$33.72	$16.54	-$5.46	—
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 94¢	$9.4	$10	+$0.6	—
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 86¢	$4.95	$5.16	+$0.21	—
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 98¢	$4.9	$4.98	+$0.07	—
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 87.1¢	$3.52	$4.04	+$0.52	—
pspspsps5<$100	Upavg 93¢	$2.95	$3.08	+$0.13	—
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Downavg 7¢	$1.51	$2.37	+$0.86	—

0x50f7

Invested

$106.93

Value

$107.47

PnL

+$0.54

Record

—

13897651<$100

Invested

$39.5

Value

$36.56

PnL

-$2.94

Record

—

ply-pm2<$100

Invested

$33.32

Value

$32.03

PnL

-$1.29

Record

—

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Invested

$27.1

Value

$28.15

PnL

+$1.05

Record

—

BoneOhio<$100

Invested

$22.75

Value

$22.87

PnL

+$0.11

Record

—

hoodquant<$100

Invested

$21.02

Value

$21.12

PnL

+$0.11

Record

—

asdcaxz<$100

Invested

$33.72

Value

$16.54

PnL

-$5.46

Record

—

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$9.4

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.6

Record

—

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$4.95

Value

$5.16

PnL

+$0.21

Record

—

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$4.9

Value

$4.98

PnL

+$0.07

Record

—

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$3.52

Value

$4.04

PnL

+$0.52

Record

—

pspspsps5<$100

Invested

$2.95

Value

$3.08

PnL

+$0.13

Record

—

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.51

Value

$2.37

PnL

+$0.86

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 13 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.