Solana Up or Down - November 9, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Down (70%) · Down at 100¢ · $221 held · ended Nov 9

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 70%

Total Value

$220.89

Combined PnL

-$16.72

Smart Money Entry

75.4¢ → 100¢

+32% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down7 traders

Total Value$207.36

Total Shares235

Combined PnL-$10.45

Up3 traders

Total Value$13.54

Total Shares106

Combined PnL-$6.26

Down — 70%Up — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 77.1¢	$64.64	$62.72	-$1.92	—
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 70.7¢	$57.63	$53.16	-$4.48	—
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 67.8¢	$40.92	$34.04	-$6.88	—
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 98¢	$31.25	$31.87	+$0.62	—
BL blue.birds<$100	Downavg 77¢	$10.78	$13.99	+$3.21	—
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Upavg 20.5¢	$10.11	$10.68	+$0.57	—
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 75.9¢	$9.14	$5.99	-$1.67	—
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 59¢	$4.91	$5.58	+$0.67	—
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 16.6¢	$9.32	$2.53	-$6.8	—
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 2.8¢	$0.37	$0.33	-$0.03	—

asdcaxz<$100

Down

Invested

$64.64

Value

$62.72

PnL

-$1.92

Record

—

13897651<$100

Down

Invested

$57.63

Value

$53.16

PnL

-$4.48

Record

—

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$40.92

Value

$34.04

PnL

-$6.88

Record

—

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Down

Invested

$31.25

Value

$31.87

PnL

+$0.62

Record

—

blue.birds<$100

Down

Invested

$10.78

Value

$13.99

PnL

+$3.21

Record

—

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Invested

$10.11

Value

$10.68

PnL

+$0.57

Record

—

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$9.14

Value

$5.99

PnL

-$1.67

Record

—

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$4.91

Value

$5.58

PnL

+$0.67

Record

—

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$9.32

Value

$2.53

PnL

-$6.8

Record

—

0x50f7CTR<$100

Invested

$0.37

Value

$0.33

PnL

-$0.03

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.