Solana Up or Down - November 9, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Down (75%) · Down at 100¢ · $130 held · ended Nov 9

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 75%

Total Value

$130.43

Combined PnL

-$0.86

Smart Money Entry

87.9¢ → 100¢

+14% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down6 traders

Total Value$125.62

Total Shares131

Combined PnL+$0.22

Up2 traders

Total Value$4.81

Total Shares20

Combined PnL-$1.09

Down — 75%Up — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 87.2¢	$50.82	$56.13	+$5.31	—
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 73.5¢	$17.4	$25	+$7.6	—
pspspsps5<$100	Downavg 98¢	$27.38	$24.43	-$2.95	—
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 90¢	$17.68	$9.82	-$7.86	—
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Downavg 97¢	$10.71	$9.23	-$1.49	—
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 52¢	$5	$4.81	-$0.19	—
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 69¢	$1.4	$1.01	-$0.39	—
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 9¢	$0.9	$0.01	-$0.9	—

13897651<$100

Down

Invested

$50.82

Value

$56.13

PnL

+$5.31

Record

—

asdcaxz<$100

Down

Invested

$17.4

Value

$25

PnL

+$7.6

Record

—

pspspsps5<$100

Down

Invested

$27.38

Value

$24.43

PnL

-$2.95

Record

—

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$17.68

Value

$9.82

PnL

-$7.86

Record

—

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Down

Invested

$10.71

Value

$9.23

PnL

-$1.49

Record

—

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

Value

$4.81

PnL

-$0.19

Record

—

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$1.4

Value

$1.01

PnL

-$0.39

Record

—

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$0.9

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.9

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.