Consensus PnL $35K · win rate 57% (16–12, n=28) · PM monthly #853 · holds 9 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$35.0K
Record
16W / 12L
Win Rate
57.0%
of 28 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#778
Source
PM monthly #853
Record (90 d)
17/29 · 59%
Trades
340
Markets
47
Volume
$247.5K
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Top consensus positions
9 in listed consensus markets · 6 of 9 on the consensus side (67%)- Jensen Huang divorce by December 31, 2026?No $20K · now 81¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (72% of 64)
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?No $10K · now 95¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (61% of 74)
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?No $6.1K · now 93¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (71% of 17)
- Gabon vs. Lesotho: O/U 2.5Under $2.1K · now 71¢ · in at 49¢with the consensus (20% of 5)
- Jensen Huang divorce by March 31, 2027?No $996 · now 64¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (83% of 30)
- Fourth Jensen Huang affair reported by December 31?No $912 · now 43¢ · in at 47¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Counter-Strike: Four Magic vs Alliance (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #12 Group AFour Magic $346 · now 5¢ · in at 34¢against the consensus (Alliance)
- Counter-Strike: STATE vs BBL (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca: Open Qualifier 2 PlayoffsSTATE $95 · now 43¢ · in at 44¢against the consensus (BBL)
Specialties
14 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 54¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where MaoZeDonK's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%
- 30–50¢: 21%(won 100% of 3)
- 50–70¢: 71%(won 100% of 10)
- 70¢ and up: 7%(won 100% of 1)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.