Consensus PnL $204K · win rate 65% (2755–1466, n=4221) · PM monthly #530 · holds 19 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$204.0K
Record
2755W / 1466L
Win Rate
65.0%
of 4221 settled
Batting Avg
—
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#972
Source
PM monthly #530
Record (90 d)
4027/4630 · 87%
Trades
64,317
Markets
13,106
Volume
$18.1M
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Top consensus positions
19 in listed consensus markets · 15 of 19 on the consensus side (79%)- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under $2.6K · now 95¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (30% of 10)
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under $2.1K · now 99¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (67% of 9)
- Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-10-10?No $1.2K · now 72¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (39% of 39)
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5Under $1.1K · now 72¢ · in at 63¢with the consensus (57% of 36)
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 4.5Under $838 · now 72¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (38% of 13)
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 5.5Under $775 · now 78¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (67% of 6)
- Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-1.5)Athletic Club $730 · now 76¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (40% of 10)
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: Draw at halftime?Yes $652 · now 31¢ · in at 55¢with the consensus (33% of 13)
Specialties
1,620 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 75¢- NBA
+35 pts
side won 100% of 219 · avg entry 65¢
ROI +33%
- NFL
+29 pts
side won 100% of 265 · avg entry 71¢
ROI +32%
- College Football
+28 pts
side won 100% of 309 · avg entry 72¢
ROI +31%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 3%(won 100% of 54)
- 30–50¢: 10%(won 100% of 154)
- 50–70¢: 22%(won 100% of 353)
- 70¢ and up: 65%(won 100% of 1059)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.