Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Down (69%) · Down at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 9

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 69%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$91.31

Smart Money Entry

47.1¢ → 100¢

+112% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 13 top traders (69%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down9 traders

Total Value$518.92

Total Shares633

Combined PnL+$118.49

Up4 traders

Total Value$161.02

Total Shares197

Combined PnL-$27.18

Down — 69%Up — 31%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Upavg 51.4¢	$725.15	$609.14	-$116.01	—
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.7¢	$187	$342.18	+$155.18
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.4¢	$538.15	$266.97	-$271.18
PL ply-pm2	Downavg 40.6¢	$164.74	$225.07	+$60.32	—
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 48.8¢	$137.45	$155.9	+$18.45	—
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.8¢	$76.3	$103.97	+$27.67
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.5¢	$61.15	$51.93	-$9.23
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Upavg 63.9¢	$140.33	$110.08	-$24.85	—
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 66.5¢	$81.89	$104.96	+$24.27	—
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 47.8¢	$31.05	$64.97	+$33.92	—
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 49.5¢	$38.23	$38.62	+$0.38	—
ohioism<$100	Downavg 46.6¢	$32.69	$36.93	+$4.24	—
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Upavg 34.4¢	$34.05	$31.07	-$2.98	—
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 78.1¢	$50.37	$24.93	-$4.16	—
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 17¢	$8.5	$11	+$2.5	—
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Upavg 32.9¢	$9.64	$10.97	+$1.33	—
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 84¢	$9.57	$8.89	-$0.68	—
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 45.5¢	$9.19	$7.57	-$1.62	—
BoneOhio<$100	Downavg 48¢	$6.24	$4.88	-$1.37	—

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Invested

$725.15

Value

$609.14

PnL

-$116.01

Record

—

Both legs:

Down$18740.7¢+$155.18

Up$538.1551.4¢-$271.18

ply-pm2

Down

Invested

$164.74

Value

$225.07

PnL

+$60.32

Record

—

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$137.45

Value

$155.9

PnL

+$18.45

Record

—

Both legs:

Down$76.348.8¢+$27.67

Up$61.1539.5¢-$9.23

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Invested

$140.33

Value

$110.08

PnL

-$24.85

Record

—

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$81.89

Value

$104.96

PnL

+$24.27

Record

—

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$31.05

Value

$64.97

PnL

+$33.92

Record

—

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Down

Invested

$38.23

Value

$38.62

PnL

+$0.38

Record

—

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$32.69

Value

$36.93

PnL

+$4.24

Record

—

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Invested

$34.05

Value

$31.07

PnL

-$2.98

Record

—

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$50.37

Value

$24.93

PnL

-$4.16

Record

—

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$8.5

Value

$11

PnL

+$2.5

Record

—

asdaefefCTR<$100

Invested

$9.64

Value

$10.97

PnL

+$1.33

Record

—

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$9.57

Value

$8.89

PnL

-$0.68

Record

—

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$9.19

Value

$7.57

PnL

-$1.62

Record

—

BoneOhio<$100

Down

Invested

$6.24

Value

$4.88

PnL

-$1.37

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 13 top traders (69%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.