Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET

8 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Down (50%) · Down at 100¢ · $788 held · ended Nov 9

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 50%

Total Value

$787.63

Combined PnL

$34.53

Smart Money Entry

63.9¢ → 100¢

+56% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 16 top traders (50%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down8 traders

Total Value$697.64

Total Shares705

Combined PnL+$137.71

Up8 traders

Total Value$89.99

Total Shares664

Combined PnL-$103.18

Down — 50%Up — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 57.8¢	$289.25	$295.82	+$34.75	—
HC Hcrystallash	Downavg 99¢	$217.46	$218.56	+$1.1	—
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 22.9¢	$21.5	$68.47	+$46.97	—
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Upavg 31.7¢	$46.61	$54.36	+$7.75	—
BL blue.birds<$100	Downavg 48.6¢	$34.17	$47.49	+$13.32	—
BoneOhio<$100	Downavg 24¢	$12.01	$46.26	+$34.25	—
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 49¢	$25.5	$29.92	+$4.42	—
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 24¢	$5.55	$9.64	+$4.53	—
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 97¢	$6.86	$6.54	-$0.32	—
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 27¢	$1.75	$4.86	+$3.12	—
PB PBot-5CTR<$100	Upavg 52¢	$2.73	$2.63	-$0.1	—
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 41¢	$2.05	$1.98	-$0.07	—
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 41¢	$0.69	$0.85	+$0.15	—
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 20.6¢	$97.33	$0.24	-$97.09	—
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 41¢	$16.4	$0.02	-$16.38	—
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Upavg 37¢	$1.85	$0	-$1.85	—

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$289.25

Value

$295.82

PnL

+$34.75

Record

—

Hcrystallash

Down

Invested

$217.46

Value

$218.56

PnL

+$1.1

Record

—

asdcaxz<$100

Down

Invested

$21.5

Value

$68.47

PnL

+$46.97

Record

—

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$46.61

Value

$54.36

PnL

+$7.75

Record

—

blue.birds<$100

Down

Invested

$34.17

Value

$47.49

PnL

+$13.32

Record

—

BoneOhio<$100

Down

Invested

$12.01

Value

$46.26

PnL

+$34.25

Record

—

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$25.5

Value

$29.92

PnL

+$4.42

Record

—

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$5.55

Value

$9.64

PnL

+$4.53

Record

—

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$6.86

Value

$6.54

PnL

-$0.32

Record

—

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$1.75

Value

$4.86

PnL

+$3.12

Record

—

PBot-5CTR<$100

Invested

$2.73

Value

$2.63

PnL

-$0.1

Record

—

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$2.05

Value

$1.98

PnL

-$0.07

Record

—

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$0.69

Value

$0.85

PnL

+$0.15

Record

—

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$97.33

Value

$0.24

PnL

-$97.09

Record

—

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$16.4

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$16.38

Record

—

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Invested

$1.85

Value

PnL

-$1.85

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 16 top traders (50%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.