Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Down (50%) · Down at 100¢ · $257 held · ended Nov 9

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 50%

Total Value

$256.59

Combined PnL

-$53.17

Smart Money Entry

84.8¢ → 100¢

+18% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down7 traders

Total Value$211.6

Total Shares229

Combined PnL+$6.89

Up7 traders

Total Value$44.99

Total Shares489

Combined PnL-$60.06

Down — 50%Up — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 90.4¢	$87.3	$87.49	+$0.19	—
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Downavg 75¢	$71.54	$77.75	+$6.21	—
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Upavg 32.1¢	$26.59	$25.28	-$1.31	—
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 95¢	$25.65	$24.84	-$0.81	—
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Upavg 49¢	$12.39	$12.64	+$0.25	—
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 88¢	$7.39	$7.81	+$0.42	—
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 93¢	$5.58	$5.55	-$0.03	—
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 70¢	$4.16	$5.07	+$0.9	—
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 42¢	$3.36	$4	+$0.64	—
HC Hcrystallash<$100	Downavg 99¢	$3.09	$3.1	+$0.02	—
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 2¢	$1.33	$1.66	+$0.33	—
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Upavg 19.8¢	$1.21	$0.67	-$0.54	—
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 4.4¢	$1.06	$0.6	-$0.46	—
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 21.4¢	$59.11	$0.14	-$58.97	—

asdcaxz<$100

Down

Invested

$87.3

Value

$87.49

PnL

+$0.19

Record

—

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Down

Invested

$71.54

Value

$77.75

PnL

+$6.21

Record

—

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$26.59

Value

$25.28

PnL

-$1.31

Record

—

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Down

Invested

$25.65

Value

$24.84

PnL

-$0.81

Record

—

38791873984189CTR<$100

Invested

$12.39

Value

$12.64

PnL

+$0.25

Record

—

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$7.39

Value

$7.81

PnL

+$0.42

Record

—

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$5.58

Value

$5.55

PnL

-$0.03

Record

—

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Down

Invested

$4.16

Value

$5.07

PnL

+$0.9

Record

—

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$3.36

Value

PnL

+$0.64

Record

—

Hcrystallash<$100

Down

Invested

$3.09

Value

$3.1

PnL

+$0.02

Record

—

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$1.33

Value

$1.66

PnL

+$0.33

Record

—

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Invested

$1.21

Value

$0.67

PnL

-$0.54

Record

—

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$1.06

Value

$0.6

PnL

-$0.46

Record

—

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$59.11

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$58.97

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.