Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Up (64%) · Up at 100¢ · $552 held · ends Nov 9

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 64%

Total Value

$552.11

Combined PnL

$21.62

Smart Money Entry

88¢ → 99.5¢

+13% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up7 traders

Total Value$540.43

Total Shares563

Combined PnL+$29.96

Down4 traders

Total Value$11.67

Total Shares232

Combined PnL-$8.34

Up — 64%Down — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HC Hcrystallash	Upavg 94.1¢	$380.52	$402.28	+$21.76	—
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 65.2¢	$67.34	$68.54	+$1.2	—
BL blue.birds<$100	Upavg 83¢	$24.9	$29.85	+$4.95	—
AS asdcaxz<$100	Upavg 88.6¢	$16.82	$18.9	+$2.07	—
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 94.1¢	$12.42	$12.87	+$0.45	—
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 49¢	$9.8	$10	+$0.2	—
BO Bonereaper<$100	Upavg 52¢	$5.72	$5.5	-$0.22	—
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 55¢	$2.75	$2.5	-$0.25	—
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 11.5¢	$3.49	$0.76	-$2.73	—
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Downavg 1¢	$1.31	$0.66	-$0.66	—
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 10.6¢	$5.41	$0.26	-$5.15	—

Hcrystallash

Invested

$380.52

Value

$402.28

PnL

+$21.76

Record

—

ply-pm2<$100

Invested

$67.34

Value

$68.54

PnL

+$1.2

Record

—

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$24.9

Value

$29.85

PnL

+$4.95

Record

—

asdcaxz<$100

Invested

$16.82

Value

$18.9

PnL

+$2.07

Record

—

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$12.42

Value

$12.87

PnL

+$0.45

Record

—

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$9.8

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.2

Record

—

Bonereaper<$100

Invested

$5.72

Value

$5.5

PnL

-$0.22

Record

—

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$2.75

Value

$2.5

PnL

-$0.25

Record

—

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$3.49

Value

$0.76

PnL

-$2.73

Record

—

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.31

Value

$0.66

PnL

-$0.66

Record

—

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$5.41

Value

$0.26

PnL

-$5.15

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.