Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Down, while the market favors Up (52%). 7 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Down (64%) · Down at 48¢ · $186 held · ends Nov 9

Up52¢Down48¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 64%

Total Value

$186.31

Combined PnL

$11.31

Research grade

NeutralDown at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Up 52%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up52%

Down48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down7 traders

Total Value$140.88

Total Shares181

Combined PnL+$16.21

Up4 traders

Total Value$45.43

Total Shares77

Combined PnL-$4.9

Down — 64%Up — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 57.5¢	$53.55	$53.7	+$0.15	—
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Downavg 46¢	$35.88	$44.54	+$8.66	—
AS asdcaxz<$100	Upavg 58.2¢	$48.45	$35.64	-$4.21	—
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 41¢	$14	$17.23	+$5.85	—
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Downavg 48.8¢	$15.86	$14.99	+$1.23	—
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 29¢	$5.8	$5	-$0.8	—
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 33.5¢	$3.35	$3.8	+$0.45	—
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Downavg 78¢	$3.95	$3.8	-$0.15	—
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Upavg 53¢	$3.06	$3.23	+$0.17	—
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 56¢	$2.8	$2.82	+$0.02	—
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 52¢	$1.63	$1.56	-$0.06	—

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$53.55

Value

$53.7

PnL

+$0.15

Record

—

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$35.88

Value

$44.54

PnL

+$8.66

Record

—

asdcaxz<$100

Invested

$48.45

Value

$35.64

PnL

-$4.21

Record

—

ohioismCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$14

Value

$17.23

PnL

+$5.85

Record

—

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$15.86

Value

$14.99

PnL

+$1.23

Record

—

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$5.8

Value

PnL

-$0.8

Record

—

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$3.35

Value

$3.8

PnL

+$0.45

Record

—

asdaefefCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$3.95

Value

$3.8

PnL

-$0.15

Record

—

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Invested

$3.06

Value

$3.23

PnL

+$0.17

Record

—

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.8

Value

$2.82

PnL

+$0.02

Record

—

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$1.63

Value

$1.56

PnL

-$0.06

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralDown at 48%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Up 52%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.