Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Down, while the market favors Up (100%). 4 of 21 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET

4 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Down (19%) · Down at 0.1¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 9

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 19%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$70.61

Smart Money Entry

19.5¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidDown at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 21 top traders (19%)Underdog side (market favors Up 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up17 traders

Total Value$680.88

Total Shares798

Combined PnL+$108.55

Down4 traders

Total Value$58.78

Total Shares742

Combined PnL-$37.94

Up — 81%Down — 19%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Downavg 50.7¢	$167.01	$163.31	-$3.7	—
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.7¢	$126.69	$124.91	-$1.79
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.5¢	$40.32	$38.41	-$1.91
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 56.2¢	$124.87	$145.69	+$20.82	—
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 63.5¢	$100.03	$123.63	+$23.6	—
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100	Downavg 28.7¢	$106.78	$121.49	+$14.71	—
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.1¢	$49.28	$90.41	+$41.13
└ Down leg	Downavg 28.7¢	$57.5	$31.08	-$26.43
PB PBot-5<$100	Upavg 48.6¢	$70.77	$72.79	+$2.02	—
BL blue.birds<$100	Upavg 81.3¢	$49.25	$57.8	+$8.55	—
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 91.1¢	$52.43	$57.5	+$5.07	—
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Downavg 21.2¢	$213.09	$46.71	-$32.11	—
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 42¢	$17.27	$41.11	+$23.83	—
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 99¢	$40.46	$40.67	+$0.2	—
pspspsps5<$100	Upavg 85.6¢	$36.11	$40.09	+$3.98	—
HC Hcrystallash<$100	Upavg 51.2¢	$28.1	$34.58	+$13.2	—
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 91¢	$16.15	$16.05	-$0.1	—
ohioism<$100	Upavg 42¢	$8.59	$15.48	+$6.89	—
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 34.6¢	$15.21	$12.01	+$2.72	—
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Upavg 79.2¢	$14.77	$11.76	+$1.19	—
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 50¢	$9.63	$9.53	-$0.1	—
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 88¢	$5.45	$5.13	-$0.32	—
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 87.6¢	$20.95	$4.89	-$0.5	—
BO bosona<$100	Upavg 45¢	$1.9	$2.11	+$0.21	—
0X 0x50f7<$100	Upavg 99.9¢	$2.08	$2.08	+$0	—
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 6.9¢	$7.35	$0.05	-$7.3	—
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Downavg 15¢	$1.25	$0	-$1.25	—

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$167.01

Value

$163.31

PnL

-$3.7

Record

—

Both legs:

Down$126.6950.7¢-$1.79

Up$40.3252.5¢-$1.91

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$124.87

Value

$145.69

PnL

+$20.82

Record

—

asdcaxz

Invested

$100.03

Value

$123.63

PnL

+$23.6

Record

—

ply-pm2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$106.78

Value

$121.49

PnL

+$14.71

Record

—

Both legs:

Up$49.2846.1¢+$41.13

Down$57.528.7¢-$26.43

PBot-5<$100

Invested

$70.77

Value

$72.79

PnL

+$2.02

Record

—

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$49.25

Value

$57.8

PnL

+$8.55

Record

—

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$52.43

Value

$57.5

PnL

+$5.07

Record

—

uninformedflowwCTR

Down

Invested

$213.09

Value

$46.71

PnL

-$32.11

Record

—

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$17.27

Value

$41.11

PnL

+$23.83

Record

—

hoodquant<$100

Invested

$40.46

Value

$40.67

PnL

+$0.2

Record

—

pspspsps5<$100

Invested

$36.11

Value

$40.09

PnL

+$3.98

Record

—

Hcrystallash<$100

Invested

$28.1

Value

$34.58

PnL

+$13.2

Record

—

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$16.15

Value

$16.05

PnL

-$0.1

Record

—

ohioism<$100

Invested

$8.59

Value

$15.48

PnL

+$6.89

Record

—

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$15.21

Value

$12.01

PnL

+$2.72

Record

—

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Invested

$14.77

Value

$11.76

PnL

+$1.19

Record

—

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$9.63

Value

$9.53

PnL

-$0.1

Record

—

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$5.45

Value

$5.13

PnL

-$0.32

Record

—

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$20.95

Value

$4.89

PnL

-$0.5

Record

—

bosona<$100

Invested

$1.9

Value

$2.11

PnL

+$0.21

Record

—

0x50f7<$100

Invested

$2.08

Value

$2.08

PnL

+$0

Record

—

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$7.35

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$7.3

Record

—

asdaefefCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.25

Value

PnL

-$1.25

Record

—

Research grade

AvoidDown at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 21 top traders (19%)Underdog side (market favors Up 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8806.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

8906.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.