Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET
11 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Down (85%) · Down at 100¢ · $436 held · ends Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
Down
13
Down 85%
$435.92
$21.75
79.5¢ → 99.5¢
+25% since entry · 11 traders
Research grade
NeutralDown at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HC Hcrystallash | Downavg 99¢ | $221.83 | $222.95 | +$1.12 | — |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 54¢ | $31.3 | $50.5 | +$19.2 | — |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 49.4¢ | $42.65 | $43.58 | +$0.94 | — |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Downavg 79¢ | $34.44 | $34.23 | -$0.22 | — |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 60.3¢ | $18.45 | $24.02 | +$5.57 | — |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 97.7¢ | $33.82 | $16.35 | -$2.62 | — |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 85.8¢ | $19.5 | $14.75 | -$2.4 | — |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 56.5¢ | $7.75 | $10.24 | +$2.5 | — |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Downavg 59¢ | $5.25 | $8.78 | +$3.53 | — |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 86.6¢ | $5.62 | $5.69 | +$0.06 | — |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 37¢ | $2.22 | $3 | +$0.78 | — |
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100 | Upavg 14.8¢ | $5.9 | $1 | -$4.9 | — |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 1.6¢ | $2.63 | $0.82 | -$1.81 | — |
Invested
$221.83
Value
$222.95
PnL
+$1.12
Record
—
Invested
$31.3
Value
$50.5
PnL
+$19.2
Record
—
Invested
$42.65
Value
$43.58
PnL
+$0.94
Record
—
Invested
$34.44
Value
$34.23
PnL
-$0.22
Record
—
Invested
$18.45
Value
$24.02
PnL
+$5.57
Record
—
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$33.82
Value
$16.35
PnL
-$2.62
Record
—
Invested
$19.5
Value
$14.75
PnL
-$2.4
Record
—
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$7.75
Value
$10.24
PnL
+$2.5
Record
—
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$5.25
Value
$8.78
PnL
+$3.53
Record
—
Invested
$5.62
Value
$5.69
PnL
+$0.06
Record
—
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$2.22
Value
$3
PnL
+$0.78
Record
—
Invested
$5.9
Value
$1
PnL
-$4.9
Record
—
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$2.63
Value
$0.82
PnL
-$1.81
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
Hcrystallash
Down — $222.95
asdcaxz
Down — $50.5
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $43.58
uninformedfloww
Down — $34.23
ply-pm2
Down — $24.02
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $16.35
drfc4eybh7i8
Down — $14.75
MayorMamdani
Down — $10.24
pspspsps5
Down — $8.78
asdaefef
Down — $5.69