Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET

13 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Up (81%) · Up at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 9

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 81%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$50.62

Smart Money Entry

81.1¢ → 100¢

+23% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 16 top traders (81%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up13 traders

Total Value$873.2

Total Shares915

Combined PnL+$75.39

Down3 traders

Total Value$42.78

Total Shares168

Combined PnL-$24.77

Up — 81%Down — 19%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 82¢	$671.06	$647.49	+$69.04	—
AS asdcaxzARB<$100	Upavg 69.3¢	$123.78	$121.3	-$2.48	—
└ Up leg	Upavg 69.3¢	$83.2	$85.2	+$2
└ Down leg	Downavg 32.6¢	$40.58	$36.11	-$4.48
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 75.4¢	$92.08	$92.67	+$0.59	—
└ Up leg	Upavg 75.4¢	$73.76	$67.97	-$5.8
└ Down leg	Downavg 22.6¢	$18.32	$24.71	+$6.38
pspspsps5<$100	Upavg 87.9¢	$39.72	$41.79	+$2.06	—
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 22.2¢	$65.7	$40.6	-$25.1	—
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 86.7¢	$34.23	$33.56	-$0.67	—
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 93.5¢	$26.22	$25.55	-$0.67	—
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 84¢	$17.2	$20.46	+$3.26	—
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 65.1¢	$24.72	$19	-$5.72	—
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 62.7¢	$14.93	$17.5	+$2.57	—
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 92.9¢	$17.38	$16.64	-$0.74	—
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 85.8¢	$13.61	$15.79	+$2.18	—
0X 0x50f7<$100	Upavg 99¢	$15.29	$15.36	+$0.08	—
ohioism<$100	Upavg 43¢	$8.6	$10	+$1.4	—
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 66¢	$5.05	$7.56	+$2.51	—
BL blue.birds<$100	Upavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.5	+$0.1	—
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 25.7¢	$1.79	$2.12	+$0.33	—
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Downavg 5.9¢	$0.07	$0.06	-$0	—

uninformedfloww

Invested

$671.06

Value

$647.49

PnL

+$69.04

Record

—

asdcaxzARB<$100

Invested

$123.78

Value

$121.3

PnL

-$2.48

Record

—

Both legs:

Up$83.269.3¢+$2

Down$40.5832.6¢-$4.48

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$92.08

Value

$92.67

PnL

+$0.59

Record

—

Both legs:

Up$73.7675.4¢-$5.8

Down$18.3222.6¢+$6.38

pspspsps5<$100

Invested

$39.72

Value

$41.79

PnL

+$2.06

Record

—

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$65.7

Value

$40.6

PnL

-$25.1

Record

—

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$34.23

Value

$33.56

PnL

-$0.67

Record

—

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$26.22

Value

$25.55

PnL

-$0.67

Record

—

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$17.2

Value

$20.46

PnL

+$3.26

Record

—

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$24.72

Value

$19

PnL

-$5.72

Record

—

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$14.93

Value

$17.5

PnL

+$2.57

Record

—

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$17.38

Value

$16.64

PnL

-$0.74

Record

—

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$13.61

Value

$15.79

PnL

+$2.18

Record

—

0x50f7<$100

Invested

$15.29

Value

$15.36

PnL

+$0.08

Record

—

ohioism<$100

Invested

$8.6

Value

$10

PnL

+$1.4

Record

—

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$5.05

Value

$7.56

PnL

+$2.51

Record

—

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$0.1

Record

—

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.79

Value

$2.12

PnL

+$0.33

Record

—

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$0.07

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$0

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 16 top traders (81%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.