Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Up (50%) · Up at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 9

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 50%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$64.81

Smart Money Entry

90.9¢ → 99.5¢

+9% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up7 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,151

Combined PnL-$28.65

Down7 traders

Total Value$90.52

Total Shares621

Combined PnL-$36.17

Up — 50%Down — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$841.92	$846.17	+$4.25	—
PL ply-pm2	Upavg 66.5¢	$117.92	$106.55	-$11.37	—
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 61.4¢	$106.77	$95.34	-$11.43	—
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Downavg 36.2¢	$70.77	$60.4	-$10.37	—
AS asdcaxz<$100	Upavg 71¢	$65.12	$58.76	-$6.36	—
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 87.2¢	$37.34	$25.8	-$2.11	—
ohioism<$100	Upavg 67¢	$23.22	$21.67	-$1.55	—
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 38.7¢	$18.46	$10.16	-$8.3	—
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 58¢	$8.69	$9.81	+$1.12	—
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 50¢	$5.21	$5.22	+$0	—
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 91¢	$4.6	$4.52	-$0.08	—
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Downavg 22¢	$1.61	$2.67	+$1.06	—
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 8.2¢	$19.65	$1.2	-$18.45	—
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 1.1¢	$2.3	$1.06	-$1.24	—

hoodquant

Invested

$841.92

Value

$846.17

PnL

+$4.25

Record

—

ply-pm2

Invested

$117.92

Value

$106.55

PnL

-$11.37

Record

—

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$106.77

Value

$95.34

PnL

-$11.43

Record

—

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$70.77

Value

$60.4

PnL

-$10.37

Record

—

asdcaxz<$100

Invested

$65.12

Value

$58.76

PnL

-$6.36

Record

—

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$37.34

Value

$25.8

PnL

-$2.11

Record

—

ohioism<$100

Invested

$23.22

Value

$21.67

PnL

-$1.55

Record

—

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$18.46

Value

$10.16

PnL

-$8.3

Record

—

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$8.69

Value

$9.81

PnL

+$1.12

Record

—

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$5.21

Value

$5.22

PnL

+$0

Record

—

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$4.6

Value

$4.52

PnL

-$0.08

Record

—

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.61

Value

$2.67

PnL

+$1.06

Record

—

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$19.65

Value

$1.2

PnL

-$18.45

Record

—

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.3

Value

$1.06

PnL

-$1.24

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.