Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Down (64%) · Down at 100¢ · $391 held · ended Nov 9

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 64%

Total Value

$391.19

Combined PnL

$49.17

Smart Money Entry

85.5¢ → 100¢

+17% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down7 traders

Total Value$337.15

Total Shares342

Combined PnL+$36.67

Up4 traders

Total Value$54.05

Total Shares217

Combined PnL+$12.5

Down — 64%Up — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
pspspsps5	Downavg 98.8¢	$128.14	$125.3	-$2.84	—
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Downavg 63¢	$60.49	$95.97	+$35.48	—
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 98¢	$64.68	$65.01	+$0.33	—
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 25.7¢	$13.8	$26.82	+$13.02	—
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 79.5¢	$19.21	$21.38	+$2.16	—
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Downavg 69¢	$12.73	$15.06	+$2.33	—
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100	Upavg 9.5¢	$16.49	$12.26	-$4.24	—
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 22¢	$4.4	$10	+$5.6	—
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 83.3¢	$13.2	$9.42	+$0.13	—
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 98¢	$5.92	$5.01	-$0.92	—
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Upavg 15.8¢	$6.86	$4.98	-$1.88	—

pspspsps5

Down

Invested

$128.14

Value

$125.3

PnL

-$2.84

Record

—

uninformedfloww<$100

Down

Invested

$60.49

Value

$95.97

PnL

+$35.48

Record

—

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Down

Invested

$64.68

Value

$65.01

PnL

+$0.33

Record

—

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$13.8

Value

$26.82

PnL

+$13.02

Record

—

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$19.21

Value

$21.38

PnL

+$2.16

Record

—

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Down

Invested

$12.73

Value

$15.06

PnL

+$2.33

Record

—

asdcaxzCTR<$100

Invested

$16.49

Value

$12.26

PnL

-$4.24

Record

—

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$4.4

Value

$10

PnL

+$5.6

Record

—

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$13.2

Value

$9.42

PnL

+$0.13

Record

—

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$5.92

Value

$5.01

PnL

-$0.92

Record

—

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Invested

$6.86

Value

$4.98

PnL

-$1.88

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.