Ethereum Up or Down - November 7, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Up (63%) · Up at 100¢ · $100 held · ended Nov 7

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 63%

Total Value

$100.25

Combined PnL

-$0.9

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up5 traders

Total Value$75.24

Total Shares81

Combined PnL+$11.75

Down3 traders

Total Value$25.02

Total Shares87

Combined PnL-$12.65

Up — 63%Down — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AS asdcaxz<$100	Upavg 45.3¢	$21.99	$28.72	+$6.73	48% 6849-7470 (14319)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 69.5¢	$34.73	$25	-$9.73	58% 39935-28881 (68816)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 90.5¢	$21.93	$24.08	+$2.15	55% 51983-43098 (95081)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 82¢	$9.75	$11.88	+$2.13	66% 130929-67744 (198673)
HC Hcrystallash<$100	Upavg 49.7¢	$5.47	$5.5	+$0.03	30% 12253-28210 (40463)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 86¢	$4.35	$5.06	+$0.71	61% 98840-62760 (161600)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Downavg 6¢	$1.64	$0.01	-$1.62	51% 12331-11829 (24160)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 13¢	$1.3	$0.01	-$1.3	56% 60747-47255 (108002)

asdcaxz<$100

Invested

$21.99

Value

$28.72

PnL

+$6.73

Record

48%

6849-7470 (14319)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$34.73

Value

$25

PnL

-$9.73

Record

58%

39935-28881 (68816)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$21.93

Value

$24.08

PnL

+$2.15

Record

55%

51983-43098 (95081)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$9.75

Value

$11.88

PnL

+$2.13

Record

66%

130929-67744 (198673)

Hcrystallash<$100

Invested

$5.47

Value

$5.5

PnL

+$0.03

Record

30%

12253-28210 (40463)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$4.35

Value

$5.06

PnL

+$0.71

Record

61%

98840-62760 (161600)

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.64

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.62

Record

51%

12331-11829 (24160)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.3

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.3

Record

56%

60747-47255 (108002)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.