Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (100%). 10 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 7, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET

10 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Up (59%) · Up at 0.1¢ · $868 held · ended Nov 7

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

Up 59%

Total Value

$868.18

Combined PnL

-$282.43

Smart Money Entry

58.6¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidUp at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 17 top traders (59%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up10 traders

Total Value$615.08

Total Shares946

Combined PnL-$223.14

Down7 traders

Total Value$253.1

Total Shares253

Combined PnL-$59.29

Up — 59%Down — 41%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AS asdcaxzCTR	Upavg 56.3¢	$317.82	$256.34	-$61.48	48% 6849-7470 (14319)
BL blue.birdsCTR	Upavg 52.1¢	$174.15	$163.83	-$10.32	51% 12331-11829 (24160)
MayorMamdaniCTR	Upavg 60.9¢	$106.79	$92.23	-$14.56	55% 51983-43098 (95081)
MO mo-money	Downavg 94¢	$111.16	$64.01	-$47.15	55% 52459-42905 (95364)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 97.1¢	$91.99	$63.08	-$28.91	61% 98840-62760 (161600)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 54.6¢	$55.26	$56	+$0.74	58% 39935-28881 (68816)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 92¢	$66.44	$45.57	-$20.87	66% 130929-67744 (198673)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 12¢	$3	$24.99	+$21.99	65% 114783-61840 (176623)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Downavg 38.8¢	$9.33	$22.12	+$12.79	56% 77597-59898 (137495)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 89¢	$26.46	$20.33	-$6.12	65% 130595-70363 (200958)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 68¢	$44	$20.02	-$23.99	56% 60747-47255 (108002)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 68¢	$23.03	$20	-$3.03	61% 46262-29448 (75710)
0X 0xdc27...afdd9a<$100	Downavg 99.1¢	$17.01	$12.99	+$8.99	52% 2171-1976 (4147)
BY ByteBadger93CTR<$100	Upavg 63.6¢	$17.06	$3.97	-$9.14	55% 1731-1421 (3152)
HC HcrystallashCTR<$100	Upavg 53.7¢	$2.82	$2.63	-$0.2	30% 12253-28210 (40463)
AL almachCTR<$100	Upavg 68¢	$51	$0.04	-$50.96	55% 50272-41872 (92144)
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Upavg 67¢	$50.25	$0.04	-$50.21	55% 51803-42236 (94039)

asdcaxzCTR

Invested

$317.82

Value

$256.34

PnL

-$61.48

Record

48%

6849-7470 (14319)

blue.birdsCTR

Invested

$174.15

Value

$163.83

PnL

-$10.32

Record

51%

12331-11829 (24160)

MayorMamdaniCTR

Invested

$106.79

Value

$92.23

PnL

-$14.56

Record

55%

51983-43098 (95081)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$111.16

Value

$64.01

PnL

-$47.15

Record

55%

52459-42905 (95364)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$91.99

Value

$63.08

PnL

-$28.91

Record

61%

98840-62760 (161600)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$55.26

Value

$56

PnL

+$0.74

Record

58%

39935-28881 (68816)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$66.44

Value

$45.57

PnL

-$20.87

Record

66%

130929-67744 (198673)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

Value

$24.99

PnL

+$21.99

Record

65%

114783-61840 (176623)

uninformedfloww<$100

Down

Invested

$9.33

Value

$22.12

PnL

+$12.79

Record

56%

77597-59898 (137495)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$26.46

Value

$20.33

PnL

-$6.12

Record

65%

130595-70363 (200958)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$44

Value

$20.02

PnL

-$23.99

Record

56%

60747-47255 (108002)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$23.03

Value

$20

PnL

-$3.03

Record

61%

46262-29448 (75710)

0xdc27...afdd9a<$100

Down

Invested

$17.01

Value

$12.99

PnL

+$8.99

Record

52%

2171-1976 (4147)

ByteBadger93CTR<$100

Invested

$17.06

Value

$3.97

PnL

-$9.14

Record

55%

1731-1421 (3152)

HcrystallashCTR<$100

Invested

$2.82

Value

$2.63

PnL

-$0.2

Record

30%

12253-28210 (40463)

almachCTR<$100

Invested

$51

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$50.96

Record

55%

50272-41872 (92144)

bosonaCTR<$100

Invested

$50.25

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$50.21

Record

55%

51803-42236 (94039)

Research grade

AvoidUp at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 17 top traders (59%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8806.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

8906.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.