Ethereum Up or Down - November 7, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET
13 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Up (100%) · Up at 100¢ · $243 held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Up
13
Up 100%
$243.34
$37.16
72¢ → 100¢
+39% since entry · 13 traders
Research grade
NeutralUp at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
13 of 13 top traders (100%)13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BL blue.birds<$100 | Upavg 67¢ | $50.11 | $60 | +$9.89 | 51% 12331-11829 (24160) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 92.9¢ | $37.15 | $39.98 | +$2.83 | 55% 51983-43098 (95081) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 83¢ | $16.6 | $19.99 | +$3.39 | 56% 60747-47255 (108002) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 71.3¢ | $14.18 | $19.88 | +$5.7 | 63% 42601-25341 (67942) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Upavg 76¢ | $20.82 | $18.88 | -$1.94 | 48% 6849-7470 (14319) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 66.4¢ | $12.43 | $18.71 | +$6.28 | 61% 98840-62760 (161600) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 72.9¢ | $12.69 | $17.41 | +$4.72 | 66% 130929-67744 (198673) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Upavg 91¢ | $13.65 | $14.99 | +$1.34 | 56% 77597-59898 (137495) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 49.7¢ | $9.95 | $10 | +$0.05 | 61% 46262-29448 (75710) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Upavg 65¢ | $4.92 | $7.57 | +$2.65 | 65% 114783-61840 (176623) |
HC Hcrystallash<$100 | Upavg 50.7¢ | $6.09 | $6 | -$0.09 | 30% 12253-28210 (40463) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 60¢ | $3.4 | $5.66 | +$2.26 | 65% 130595-70363 (200958) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $4.19 | $4.28 | +$0.09 | 58% 39935-28881 (68816) |
Invested
$50.11
Value
$60
PnL
+$9.89
Record
51%
12331-11829 (24160)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$37.15
Value
$39.98
PnL
+$2.83
Record
55%
51983-43098 (95081)
Invested
$16.6
Value
$19.99
PnL
+$3.39
Record
56%
60747-47255 (108002)
ohioism<$100Invested
$14.18
Value
$19.88
PnL
+$5.7
Record
63%
42601-25341 (67942)
Invested
$20.82
Value
$18.88
PnL
-$1.94
Record
48%
6849-7470 (14319)
Invested
$12.43
Value
$18.71
PnL
+$6.28
Record
61%
98840-62760 (161600)
Invested
$12.69
Value
$17.41
PnL
+$4.72
Record
66%
130929-67744 (198673)
Invested
$13.65
Value
$14.99
PnL
+$1.34
Record
56%
77597-59898 (137495)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$9.95
Value
$10
PnL
+$0.05
Record
61%
46262-29448 (75710)
Invested
$4.92
Value
$7.57
PnL
+$2.65
Record
65%
114783-61840 (176623)
Invested
$6.09
Value
$6
PnL
-$0.09
Record
30%
12253-28210 (40463)
Invested
$3.4
Value
$5.66
PnL
+$2.26
Record
65%
130595-70363 (200958)
Invested
$4.19
Value
$4.28
PnL
+$0.09
Record
58%
39935-28881 (68816)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
blue.birds
Up — $60
MayorMamdani
Up — $39.98
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Up — $19.99
ohioism
Up — $19.88
asdcaxz
Up — $18.88
asidjasiodja
Up — $18.71
asdaefef
Up — $17.41
uninformedfloww
Up — $14.99
G-Penis-Monster
Up — $10
antsaslyku
Up — $7.57