Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Down, while the market favors Up (100%). 7 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 7, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Down (54%) · Down at 0.1¢ · $439 held · ended Nov 7

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 54%

Total Value

$438.6

Combined PnL

-$8.87

Smart Money Entry

56.2¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidDown at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 13 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors Up 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down7 traders

Total Value$235.72

Total Shares362

Combined PnL-$75.79

Up6 traders

Total Value$202.88

Total Shares221

Combined PnL+$66.92

Down — 54%Up — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BL blue.birdsCTR	Downavg 42.6¢	$145.16	$138.28	-$6.88	51% 12331-11829 (24160)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 48.4¢	$40.04	$76.69	+$36.64	58% 39935-28881 (68816)
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100	Downavg 64.5¢	$95.65	$69.83	-$25.82	48% 6849-7470 (14319)
BoneOhio<$100	Upavg 48¢	$24	$49.98	+$25.98	74% 105188-37116 (142304)
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 99¢	$38.73	$38.73	+$0	89% 29619-3561 (33180)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 60¢	$12	$19.99	+$7.99	63% 42601-25341 (67942)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Downavg 89¢	$17.69	$15	-$2.69	66% 130929-67744 (198673)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 61.7¢	$12.34	$10	-$2.34	56% 60747-47255 (108002)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Upavg 59¢	$8.85	$7.5	-$1.35	56% 77597-59898 (137495)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 61.4¢	$25.24	$6.46	-$18.78	55% 51983-43098 (95081)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 95.3¢	$20.08	$6.14	-$13.94	58% 63489-46675 (110164)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Downavg 89¢	$5.64	$0	-$5.64	65% 130595-70363 (200958)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Downavg 41¢	$2.05	$0	-$2.05	61% 98840-62760 (161600)

blue.birdsCTR

Down

Invested

$145.16

Value

$138.28

PnL

-$6.88

Record

51%

12331-11829 (24160)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$40.04

Value

$76.69

PnL

+$36.64

Record

58%

39935-28881 (68816)

asdcaxzCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$95.65

Value

$69.83

PnL

-$25.82

Record

48%

6849-7470 (14319)

BoneOhio<$100

Invested

$24

Value

$49.98

PnL

+$25.98

Record

74%

105188-37116 (142304)

hoodquant<$100

Invested

$38.73

Value

$38.73

PnL

+$0

Record

89%

29619-3561 (33180)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$12

Value

$19.99

PnL

+$7.99

Record

63%

42601-25341 (67942)

asdaefefCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$17.69

Value

$15

PnL

-$2.69

Record

66%

130929-67744 (198673)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$12.34

Value

$10

PnL

-$2.34

Record

56%

60747-47255 (108002)

uninformedfloww<$100

Invested

$8.85

Value

$7.5

PnL

-$1.35

Record

56%

77597-59898 (137495)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$25.24

Value

$6.46

PnL

-$18.78

Record

55%

51983-43098 (95081)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$20.08

Value

$6.14

PnL

-$13.94

Record

58%

63489-46675 (110164)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$5.64

Value

PnL

-$5.64

Record

65%

130595-70363 (200958)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.05

Value

PnL

-$2.05

Record

61%

98840-62760 (161600)

Research grade

AvoidDown at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 13 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors Up 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8806.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

8906.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.