Ethereum Up or Down - November 7, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Down (71%) · Down at 100¢ · $150 held · ended Nov 7

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 71%

Total Value

$150.18

Combined PnL

-$4.86

Smart Money Entry

81.5¢ → 100¢

+23% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down5 traders

Total Value$133.18

Total Shares144

Combined PnL-$7.16

Up2 traders

Total Value$17

Total Shares34

Combined PnL+$2.3

Down — 71%Up — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 82¢	$59.05	$50.01	-$9.04	48% 6849-7470 (14319)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 78.1¢	$35.25	$45.1	+$9.85	55% 51983-43098 (95081)
BL blue.birds<$100	Downavg 86¢	$21.91	$20	-$1.91	51% 12331-11829 (24160)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 78.5¢	$17.27	$11	-$6.27	58% 39935-28881 (68816)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 36.6¢	$7.32	$10	+$2.68	56% 60747-47255 (108002)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 97¢	$6.86	$7.07	+$0.21	66% 130929-67744 (198673)
HC HcrystallashCTR<$100	Upavg 52.7¢	$7.38	$7	-$0.38	30% 12253-28210 (40463)

asdcaxz<$100

Down

Invested

$59.05

Value

$50.01

PnL

-$9.04

Record

48%

6849-7470 (14319)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$35.25

Value

$45.1

PnL

+$9.85

Record

55%

51983-43098 (95081)

blue.birds<$100

Down

Invested

$21.91

Value

$20

PnL

-$1.91

Record

51%

12331-11829 (24160)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Down

Invested

$17.27

Value

$11

PnL

-$6.27

Record

58%

39935-28881 (68816)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$7.32

Value

$10

PnL

+$2.68

Record

56%

60747-47255 (108002)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$6.86

Value

$7.07

PnL

+$0.21

Record

66%

130929-67744 (198673)

HcrystallashCTR<$100

Invested

$7.38

Value

PnL

-$0.38

Record

30%

12253-28210 (40463)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.