Ethereum Up or Down - November 7, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Up (80%) · Up at 100¢ · $497 held · ended Nov 7

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 80%

Total Value

$496.93

Combined PnL

$83.79

Smart Money Entry

74.7¢ → 100¢

+34% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up8 traders

Total Value$437.71

Total Shares438

Combined PnL+$107.16

Down2 traders

Total Value$59.22

Total Shares158

Combined PnL-$23.37

Up — 80%Down — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 80¢	$186.43	$232.98	+$46.55	56% 77597-59898 (137495)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 84.3¢	$57.33	$68	+$10.66	55% 51983-43098 (95081)
AL almach<$100	Upavg 71¢	$35.5	$49.98	+$14.48	55% 50272-41872 (92144)
BL blue.birds<$100	Upavg 46.6¢	$24.68	$45.57	+$20.89	51% 12331-11829 (24160)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 60¢	$41.08	$34.24	-$6.84	58% 39935-28881 (68816)
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100	Downavg 26¢	$41.5	$24.97	-$16.53	48% 6849-7470 (14319)
MO mo-money<$100	Upavg 71¢	$10.65	$14.99	+$4.34	55% 52459-42905 (95364)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 57.3¢	$6.75	$11.77	+$5.02	61% 98840-62760 (161600)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 59.2¢	$6.65	$11.22	+$4.57	66% 130929-67744 (198673)
BO bosona<$100	Upavg 80¢	$2.57	$3.21	+$0.64	55% 51803-42236 (94039)

uninformedfloww

Invested

$186.43

Value

$232.98

PnL

+$46.55

Record

56%

77597-59898 (137495)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$57.33

Value

$68

PnL

+$10.66

Record

55%

51983-43098 (95081)

almach<$100

Invested

$35.5

Value

$49.98

PnL

+$14.48

Record

55%

50272-41872 (92144)

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$24.68

Value

$45.57

PnL

+$20.89

Record

51%

12331-11829 (24160)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$41.08

Value

$34.24

PnL

-$6.84

Record

58%

39935-28881 (68816)

asdcaxzCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$41.5

Value

$24.97

PnL

-$16.53

Record

48%

6849-7470 (14319)

mo-money<$100

Invested

$10.65

Value

$14.99

PnL

+$4.34

Record

55%

52459-42905 (95364)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$6.75

Value

$11.77

PnL

+$5.02

Record

61%

98840-62760 (161600)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$6.65

Value

$11.22

PnL

+$4.57

Record

66%

130929-67744 (198673)

bosona<$100

Invested

$2.57

Value

$3.21

PnL

+$0.64

Record

55%

51803-42236 (94039)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.