Ethereum Up or Down - November 7, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET

9 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Up (60%) · Up at 100¢ · $383 held · ended Nov 7

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 60%

Total Value

$382.97

Combined PnL

-$14.79

Smart Money Entry

73.6¢ → 100¢

+36% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 15 top traders (60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up9 traders

Total Value$376.8

Total Shares386

Combined PnL+$16.57

Down6 traders

Total Value$6.17

Total Shares184

Combined PnL-$31.37

Up — 60%Down — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 62.2¢	$121.7	$156.51	+$34.81	48% 6849-7470 (14319)
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 98¢	$49.98	$50.97	+$0.99	89% 29619-3561 (33180)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Upavg 72.9¢	$36.45	$50	+$13.55	56% 77597-59898 (137495)
BL blue.birds<$100	Upavg 77.9¢	$56.24	$44.21	-$12.03	51% 12331-11829 (24160)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 85.9¢	$45.09	$29.01	-$16.08	55% 51983-43098 (95081)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 68.8¢	$18.21	$14.86	-$3.35	61% 98840-62760 (161600)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 95.1¢	$15.35	$14.24	-$1.11	65% 130595-70363 (200958)
HC Hcrystallash<$100	Upavg 67.6¢	$12.16	$9	-$3.16	30% 12253-28210 (40463)
OhioAI<$100	Upavg 63¢	$5.04	$8	+$2.96	54% 10484-8849 (19333)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Downavg 8.7¢	$10.75	$6.11	-$4.63	66% 130929-67744 (198673)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 33.3¢	$13.32	$0.02	-$13.3	56% 60747-47255 (108002)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Downavg 2¢	$0.55	$0.01	-$0.54	59% 63951-45107 (109058)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 16¢	$3.32	$0.01	-$3.31	58% 39935-28881 (68816)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 40¢	$8	$0.01	-$7.99	63% 42601-25341 (67942)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 36¢	$1.6	$0	-$1.6	58% 63489-46675 (110164)

asdcaxz

Invested

$121.7

Value

$156.51

PnL

+$34.81

Record

48%

6849-7470 (14319)

hoodquant<$100

Invested

$49.98

Value

$50.97

PnL

+$0.99

Record

89%

29619-3561 (33180)

uninformedfloww<$100

Invested

$36.45

Value

$50

PnL

+$13.55

Record

56%

77597-59898 (137495)

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$56.24

Value

$44.21

PnL

-$12.03

Record

51%

12331-11829 (24160)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$45.09

Value

$29.01

PnL

-$16.08

Record

55%

51983-43098 (95081)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$18.21

Value

$14.86

PnL

-$3.35

Record

61%

98840-62760 (161600)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$15.35

Value

$14.24

PnL

-$1.11

Record

65%

130595-70363 (200958)

Hcrystallash<$100

Invested

$12.16

Value

PnL

-$3.16

Record

30%

12253-28210 (40463)

OhioAI<$100

Invested

$5.04

Value

PnL

+$2.96

Record

54%

10484-8849 (19333)

asdaefefCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$10.75

Value

$6.11

PnL

-$4.63

Record

66%

130929-67744 (198673)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$13.32

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$13.3

Record

56%

60747-47255 (108002)

0x50f7CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$0.55

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.54

Record

59%

63951-45107 (109058)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$3.32

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$3.31

Record

58%

39935-28881 (68816)

ohioismCTR<$100

Down

Invested

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$7.99

Record

63%

42601-25341 (67942)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.6

Value

PnL

-$1.6

Record

58%

63489-46675 (110164)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 15 top traders (60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.