Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (100%). 4 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 7, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Up (40%) · Up at 0.1¢ · $203 held · ended Nov 7

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

Up 40%

Total Value

$202.56

Combined PnL

-$231.1

Smart Money Entry

76.2¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUp at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down6 traders

Total Value$194.44

Total Shares195

Combined PnL+$43.92

Up4 traders

Total Value$8.11

Total Shares367

Combined PnL-$275.02

Down — 60%Up — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 84.1¢	$72.81	$68.99	-$3.82	48% 6849-7470 (14319)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 74.5¢	$41.27	$50.42	+$9.15	55% 51983-43098 (95081)
BL blue.birds<$100	Downavg 52¢	$20.8	$39.98	+$19.18	51% 12331-11829 (24160)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 45¢	$9	$19.99	+$10.99	56% 60747-47255 (108002)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 43.7¢	$4.3	$9.84	+$5.54	66% 130929-67744 (198673)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Upavg 70.5¢	$10.85	$7.93	-$2.91	65% 130595-70363 (200958)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 45¢	$2.35	$5.22	+$2.87	61% 98840-62760 (161600)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Upavg 77.5¢	$261.65	$0.17	-$261.48	56% 77597-59898 (137495)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 45¢	$5	$0.01	-$4.99	65% 114783-61840 (176623)
BoneOhioCTR<$100	Upavg 71.4¢	$5.64	$0	-$5.64	74% 105188-37116 (142304)

asdcaxz<$100

Down

Invested

$72.81

Value

$68.99

PnL

-$3.82

Record

48%

6849-7470 (14319)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$41.27

Value

$50.42

PnL

+$9.15

Record

55%

51983-43098 (95081)

blue.birds<$100

Down

Invested

$20.8

Value

$39.98

PnL

+$19.18

Record

51%

12331-11829 (24160)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

Value

$19.99

PnL

+$10.99

Record

56%

60747-47255 (108002)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$4.3

Value

$9.84

PnL

+$5.54

Record

66%

130929-67744 (198673)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$10.85

Value

$7.93

PnL

-$2.91

Record

65%

130595-70363 (200958)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$2.35

Value

$5.22

PnL

+$2.87

Record

61%

98840-62760 (161600)

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$261.65

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$261.48

Record

56%

77597-59898 (137495)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$4.99

Record

65%

114783-61840 (176623)

BoneOhioCTR<$100

Invested

$5.64

Value

PnL

-$5.64

Record

74%

105188-37116 (142304)

Research grade

AvoidUp at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8806.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

8906.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.