Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Down, while the market favors Up (100%). 6 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 7, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Down (55%) · Down at 0.1¢ · $376 held · ended Nov 7

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 55%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$376.4

Combined PnL

-$104.74

Smart Money Entry

55.3¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidDown at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Up 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up5 traders

Total Value$188.3

Total Shares199

Combined PnL+$43.13

Down6 traders

Total Value$117.63

Total Shares381

Combined PnL-$147.87

Up — 45%Down — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AS asdcaxzARB<$100	Downavg 43.6¢	$57.58	$70.47	+$12.88	48% 6849-7470 (14319)
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.6¢	$44.95	$39.72	-$5.23
└ Up leg	Upavg 25.3¢	$12.64	$30.75	+$18.11
BL blue.birds<$100	Upavg 58.2¢	$65.22	$68.05	+$2.83	51% 12331-11829 (24160)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Downavg 53.8¢	$72.79	$61.66	-$11.13	63% 60963-35415 (96378)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 50.9¢	$22	$43.23	+$21.23	55% 51983-43098 (95081)
BO bosona<$100	Upavg 52.3¢	$18.91	$36.12	+$17.21	55% 51803-42236 (94039)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 48¢	$39.49	$30	-$9.49	58% 39935-28881 (68816)
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 99¢	$21.12	$20.9	-$0.21	89% 29619-3561 (33180)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 47.5¢	$17.92	$20	+$2.08	63% 42601-25341 (67942)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 38.5¢	$14.05	$20	+$5.95	61% 46262-29448 (75710)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Downavg 61.8¢	$109.27	$5.94	-$103.33	56% 77597-59898 (137495)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 43.8¢	$17.5	$0.02	-$17.48	58% 63489-46675 (110164)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 62¢	$12.4	$0.01	-$12.39	56% 60747-47255 (108002)

asdcaxzARB<$100

Down

Invested

$57.58

Value

$70.47

PnL

+$12.88

Record

48%

6849-7470 (14319)

Both legs:

Down$44.9543.6¢-$5.23

Up$12.6425.3¢+$18.11

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$65.22

Value

$68.05

PnL

+$2.83

Record

51%

12331-11829 (24160)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$72.79

Value

$61.66

PnL

-$11.13

Record

63%

60963-35415 (96378)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$22

Value

$43.23

PnL

+$21.23

Record

55%

51983-43098 (95081)

bosona<$100

Invested

$18.91

Value

$36.12

PnL

+$17.21

Record

55%

51803-42236 (94039)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$39.49

Value

$30

PnL

-$9.49

Record

58%

39935-28881 (68816)

hoodquant<$100

Invested

$21.12

Value

$20.9

PnL

-$0.21

Record

89%

29619-3561 (33180)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$17.92

Value

$20

PnL

+$2.08

Record

63%

42601-25341 (67942)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$14.05

Value

$20

PnL

+$5.95

Record

61%

46262-29448 (75710)

uninformedflowwCTR

Down

Invested

$109.27

Value

$5.94

PnL

-$103.33

Record

56%

77597-59898 (137495)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$17.5

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$17.48

Record

58%

63489-46675 (110164)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$12.4

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$12.39

Record

56%

60747-47255 (108002)

Research grade

AvoidDown at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Up 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8806.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

8906.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.