Ethereum Up or Down - November 6, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET

12 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Up (86%) · Up at 100¢ · $852 held · ended Nov 7

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 86%

Total Value

$851.78

Combined PnL

$197.55

Smart Money Entry

47.8¢ → 100¢

+109% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 14 top traders (86%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up12 traders

Total Value$846.03

Total Shares970

Combined PnL+$198.15

Down2 traders

Total Value$5.75

Total Shares20

Combined PnL-$0.6

Up — 86%Down — 14%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL ply-pm2	Upavg 45.3¢	$219.76	$271.81	+$52.05	51% 10526-9985 (20511)
pspspsps5	Upavg 36.6¢	$102.67	$182.96	+$80.29	46% 40118-48047 (88165)
MayorMamdani	Upavg 85.3¢	$158.81	$170.82	+$12.01	55% 51661-42834 (94495)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 38.6¢	$91.13	$133.76	+$42.63	47% 6557-7261 (13818)
BL blue.birds<$100	Upavg 43.7¢	$39.64	$47.26	+$7.62	51% 12098-11574 (23672)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 28.3¢	$14.9	$15.54	+$0.64	49% 80989-84429 (165418)
OhioAICTR<$100	Downavg 42¢	$6.3	$5.63	-$0.67	54% 10473-8828 (19301)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 53.6¢	$6.67	$5.54	-$1.13	61% 98614-62609 (161223)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 30.4¢	$6.09	$5.5	-$0.59	56% 60559-47106 (107665)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 34.1¢	$1.75	$5.13	+$3.38	66% 130591-67529 (198120)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 35.6¢	$3.56	$5	+$1.44	63% 42447-25170 (67617)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 31.5¢	$1.63	$1.52	-$0.1	65% 130293-70158 (200451)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 31.5¢	$1.28	$1.2	-$0.08	61% 46098-29272 (75370)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 1¢	$0.05	$0.13	+$0.08	65% 114590-61630 (176220)

ply-pm2

Invested

$219.76

Value

$271.81

PnL

+$52.05

Record

51%

10526-9985 (20511)

pspspsps5

Invested

$102.67

Value

$182.96

PnL

+$80.29

Record

46%

40118-48047 (88165)

MayorMamdani

Invested

$158.81

Value

$170.82

PnL

+$12.01

Record

55%

51661-42834 (94495)

asdcaxz

Invested

$91.13

Value

$133.76

PnL

+$42.63

Record

47%

6557-7261 (13818)

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$39.64

Value

$47.26

PnL

+$7.62

Record

51%

12098-11574 (23672)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$14.9

Value

$15.54

PnL

+$0.64

Record

49%

80989-84429 (165418)

OhioAICTR<$100

Down

Invested

$6.3

Value

$5.63

PnL

-$0.67

Record

54%

10473-8828 (19301)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$6.67

Value

$5.54

PnL

-$1.13

Record

61%

98614-62609 (161223)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$6.09

Value

$5.5

PnL

-$0.59

Record

56%

60559-47106 (107665)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$1.75

Value

$5.13

PnL

+$3.38

Record

66%

130591-67529 (198120)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$3.56

Value

PnL

+$1.44

Record

63%

42447-25170 (67617)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$1.63

Value

$1.52

PnL

-$0.1

Record

65%

130293-70158 (200451)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$1.28

Value

$1.2

PnL

-$0.08

Record

61%

46098-29272 (75370)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$0.05

Value

$0.13

PnL

+$0.08

Record

65%

114590-61630 (176220)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 14 top traders (86%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.