Ethereum Up or Down - November 6, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Up (90%) · Up at 100¢ · $414 held · ended Nov 7

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 90%

Total Value

$414.13

Combined PnL

-$1.56

Smart Money Entry

80¢ → 100¢

+25% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up9 traders

Total Value$408.2

Total Shares480

Combined PnL+$2.09

Down1 trader

Total Value$5.93

Total Shares70

Combined PnL-$3.65

Up — 90%Down — 10%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
pspspsps5	Upavg 86.4¢	$128.18	$146.05	+$17.87	46% 40118-48047 (88165)
PL ply-pm2	Upavg 77.3¢	$107.81	$119.98	+$12.17	51% 10526-9985 (20511)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Upavg 71.5¢	$83.66	$58.5	-$25.16	56% 77408-59804 (137212)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 81.8¢	$22.6	$27.21	+$4.61	49% 80989-84429 (165418)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 86¢	$15.83	$16.67	+$0.84	61% 98614-62609 (161223)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 84.3¢	$13.3	$15.76	+$2.46	66% 130591-67529 (198120)
BL blue.birds<$100	Upavg 91.6¢	$19	$14.2	-$4.81	51% 12098-11574 (23672)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 78.2¢	$11.47	$7.33	-$4.14	56% 60559-47106 (107665)
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100	Downavg 13.7¢	$9.59	$5.93	-$3.65	47% 6557-7261 (13818)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 84.9¢	$4.25	$2.5	-$1.75	65% 130293-70158 (200451)

pspspsps5

Invested

$128.18

Value

$146.05

PnL

+$17.87

Record

46%

40118-48047 (88165)

ply-pm2

Invested

$107.81

Value

$119.98

PnL

+$12.17

Record

51%

10526-9985 (20511)

uninformedfloww<$100

Invested

$83.66

Value

$58.5

PnL

-$25.16

Record

56%

77408-59804 (137212)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$22.6

Value

$27.21

PnL

+$4.61

Record

49%

80989-84429 (165418)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$15.83

Value

$16.67

PnL

+$0.84

Record

61%

98614-62609 (161223)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$13.3

Value

$15.76

PnL

+$2.46

Record

66%

130591-67529 (198120)

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$19

Value

$14.2

PnL

-$4.81

Record

51%

12098-11574 (23672)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$11.47

Value

$7.33

PnL

-$4.14

Record

56%

60559-47106 (107665)

asdcaxzCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$9.59

Value

$5.93

PnL

-$3.65

Record

47%

6557-7261 (13818)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$4.25

Value

$2.5

PnL

-$1.75

Record

65%

130293-70158 (200451)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.