Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (100%). 4 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 6, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET

4 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Up (31%) · Up at 0.1¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 7

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

Up 31%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

-$62.83

Smart Money Entry

56.7¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUp at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 13 top traders (31%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up4 traders

Total Value$597.6

Total Shares1,032

Combined PnL-$54.42

Down9 traders

Total Value$295.5

Total Shares309

Combined PnL-$8.41

Up — 31%Down — 69%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Upavg 63.6¢	$430.09	$338.12	-$91.98	56% 77408-59804 (137212)
PL ply-pm2CTR	Upavg 37¢	$146.04	$176.89	+$30.84	51% 10526-9985 (20511)
pspspsps5ARB<$100	Upavg 70.5¢	$138.98	$123.71	-$15.27	46% 40118-48047 (88165)
└ Up leg	Upavg 70.5¢	$80.2	$81.9	+$1.7
└ Down leg	Downavg 39.4¢	$58.78	$41.8	-$16.97
MayorMamdani	Downavg 95.4¢	$140.34	$96.63	-$43.71	55% 51661-42834 (94495)
BL blue.birds<$100	Downavg 76.8¢	$76.91	$79.69	+$2.78	51% 12098-11574 (23672)
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100	Upavg 52.7¢	$55.86	$60.72	+$4.86	47% 6557-7261 (13818)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 23.6¢	$9.06	$37.65	+$28.59	65% 114590-61630 (176220)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 73.7¢	$20.02	$21.88	+$1.86	49% 80989-84429 (165418)
MO mo-money<$100	Downavg 77¢	$14.63	$18.99	+$4.36	55% 52350-42822 (95172)
AL almach<$100	Downavg 77¢	$14.01	$18.18	+$4.17	55% 50160-41769 (91929)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 79¢	$18.51	$17.57	-$0.94	61% 46098-29272 (75370)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 94.4¢	$16.63	$13.21	-$3.42	61% 98614-62609 (161223)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 86.3¢	$8	$6.95	-$1.05	65% 130293-70158 (200451)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 88¢	$5.82	$6.61	+$0.79	66% 130591-67529 (198120)

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$430.09

Value

$338.12

PnL

-$91.98

Record

56%

77408-59804 (137212)

ply-pm2CTR

Invested

$146.04

Value

$176.89

PnL

+$30.84

Record

51%

10526-9985 (20511)

pspspsps5ARB<$100

Invested

$138.98

Value

$123.71

PnL

-$15.27

Record

46%

40118-48047 (88165)

Both legs:

Up$80.270.5¢+$1.7

Down$58.7839.4¢-$16.97

MayorMamdani

Down

Invested

$140.34

Value

$96.63

PnL

-$43.71

Record

55%

51661-42834 (94495)

blue.birds<$100

Down

Invested

$76.91

Value

$79.69

PnL

+$2.78

Record

51%

12098-11574 (23672)

asdcaxzCTR<$100

Invested

$55.86

Value

$60.72

PnL

+$4.86

Record

47%

6557-7261 (13818)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$9.06

Value

$37.65

PnL

+$28.59

Record

65%

114590-61630 (176220)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$20.02

Value

$21.88

PnL

+$1.86

Record

49%

80989-84429 (165418)

mo-money<$100

Down

Invested

$14.63

Value

$18.99

PnL

+$4.36

Record

55%

52350-42822 (95172)

almach<$100

Down

Invested

$14.01

Value

$18.18

PnL

+$4.17

Record

55%

50160-41769 (91929)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$18.51

Value

$17.57

PnL

-$0.94

Record

61%

46098-29272 (75370)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$16.63

Value

$13.21

PnL

-$3.42

Record

61%

98614-62609 (161223)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

Value

$6.95

PnL

-$1.05

Record

65%

130293-70158 (200451)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$5.82

Value

$6.61

PnL

+$0.79

Record

66%

130591-67529 (198120)

Research grade

AvoidUp at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 13 top traders (31%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8806.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

8906.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.