Ethereum Up or Down - November 6, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET
11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Up (92%) · Up at 100¢ · $678 held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Up
12
Up 92%
$678.02
$202.24
64.6¢ → 100¢
+55% since entry · 11 traders
Research grade
NeutralUp at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2 | Upavg 49.9¢ | $172.33 | $333.63 | +$161.3 | 51% 10526-9985 (20511) |
 pspspsps5 | Upavg 75.8¢ | $136.13 | $175.37 | +$39.24 | 46% 40118-48047 (88165) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Upavg 93.5¢ | $65.42 | $63.7 | -$1.72 | 56% 77408-59804 (137212) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 82.7¢ | $17.83 | $20.38 | +$2.55 | 61% 98614-62609 (161223) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 72¢ | $14.31 | $19.86 | +$5.55 | 66% 130591-67529 (198120) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Upavg 95.2¢ | $15.23 | $15.76 | +$0.53 | 49% 80989-84429 (165418) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Upavg 70.7¢ | $21.65 | $15.31 | -$6.34 | 51% 12098-11574 (23672) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Upavg 38.6¢ | $5.36 | $10.67 | +$5.32 | 47% 6557-7261 (13818) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 58.7¢ | $9.78 | $8.2 | -$1.58 | 65% 130293-70158 (200451) |
HC HcrystallashCTR<$100 | Downavg 63.9¢ | $8.95 | $7 | -$1.95 | 30% 12179-28146 (40325) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Upavg 59.7¢ | $4.97 | $4.17 | -$0.81 | 65% 114590-61630 (176220) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 76.3¢ | $3.82 | $3.98 | +$0.16 | 56% 60559-47106 (107665) |
Invested
$172.33
Value
$333.63
PnL
+$161.3
Record
51%
10526-9985 (20511)
pspspsps5Invested
$136.13
Value
$175.37
PnL
+$39.24
Record
46%
40118-48047 (88165)
Invested
$65.42
Value
$63.7
PnL
-$1.72
Record
56%
77408-59804 (137212)
Invested
$17.83
Value
$20.38
PnL
+$2.55
Record
61%
98614-62609 (161223)
Invested
$14.31
Value
$19.86
PnL
+$5.55
Record
66%
130591-67529 (198120)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$15.23
Value
$15.76
PnL
+$0.53
Record
49%
80989-84429 (165418)
Invested
$21.65
Value
$15.31
PnL
-$6.34
Record
51%
12098-11574 (23672)
Invested
$5.36
Value
$10.67
PnL
+$5.32
Record
47%
6557-7261 (13818)
Invested
$9.78
Value
$8.2
PnL
-$1.58
Record
65%
130293-70158 (200451)
Invested
$8.95
Value
$7
PnL
-$1.95
Record
30%
12179-28146 (40325)
Invested
$4.97
Value
$4.17
PnL
-$0.81
Record
65%
114590-61630 (176220)
Invested
$3.82
Value
$3.98
PnL
+$0.16
Record
56%
60559-47106 (107665)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.