Ethereum Up or Down - November 6, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET

9 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Up (64%) · Up at 100¢ · $960 held · ended Nov 7

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 64%

Total Value

$960.02

Combined PnL

-$35.67

Smart Money Entry

72.7¢ → 100¢

+37% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 14 top traders (64%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up9 traders

Total Value$932.46

Total Shares1,095

Combined PnL-$38.99

Down5 traders

Total Value$27.56

Total Shares68

Combined PnL+$3.33

Up — 64%Down — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL ply-pm2	Upavg 78.4¢	$256.38	$228.12	-$28.26	51% 10526-9985 (20511)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 77.4¢	$198.75	$186.92	-$11.84	47% 6557-7261 (13818)
pspspsps5	Upavg 65.8¢	$199.07	$179.93	-$19.14	46% 40118-48047 (88165)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 61.6¢	$121.42	$157.25	+$35.83	51% 12098-11574 (23672)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 79.3¢	$99.8	$97.32	-$2.47	55% 51661-42834 (94495)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 92.3¢	$31.45	$28.21	-$3.24	66% 130591-67529 (198120)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 66.1¢	$33.82	$25.57	-$8.24	49% 80989-84429 (165418)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 99.1¢	$21.8	$21.67	-$0.13	61% 98614-62609 (161223)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 31.5¢	$5.26	$8.35	+$3.09	58% 63311-46525 (109836)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 92.5¢	$8.96	$7.46	-$1.5	65% 130293-70158 (200451)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 31.8¢	$6.36	$7.3	+$0.94	63% 42447-25170 (67617)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 33¢	$7.36	$6.8	-$0.55	61% 46098-29272 (75370)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 62.2¢	$4.79	$4.69	-$0.1	65% 114590-61630 (176220)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 46¢	$0.47	$0.41	-$0.06	56% 60559-47106 (107665)

ply-pm2

Invested

$256.38

Value

$228.12

PnL

-$28.26

Record

51%

10526-9985 (20511)

asdcaxz

Invested

$198.75

Value

$186.92

PnL

-$11.84

Record

47%

6557-7261 (13818)

pspspsps5

Invested

$199.07

Value

$179.93

PnL

-$19.14

Record

46%

40118-48047 (88165)

blue.birds

Invested

$121.42

Value

$157.25

PnL

+$35.83

Record

51%

12098-11574 (23672)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$99.8

Value

$97.32

PnL

-$2.47

Record

55%

51661-42834 (94495)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$31.45

Value

$28.21

PnL

-$3.24

Record

66%

130591-67529 (198120)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$33.82

Value

$25.57

PnL

-$8.24

Record

49%

80989-84429 (165418)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$21.8

Value

$21.67

PnL

-$0.13

Record

61%

98614-62609 (161223)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$5.26

Value

$8.35

PnL

+$3.09

Record

58%

63311-46525 (109836)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$8.96

Value

$7.46

PnL

-$1.5

Record

65%

130293-70158 (200451)

ohioismCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$6.36

Value

$7.3

PnL

+$0.94

Record

63%

42447-25170 (67617)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$7.36

Value

$6.8

PnL

-$0.55

Record

61%

46098-29272 (75370)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$4.79

Value

$4.69

PnL

-$0.1

Record

65%

114590-61630 (176220)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$0.47

Value

$0.41

PnL

-$0.06

Record

56%

60559-47106 (107665)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 14 top traders (64%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.