Fulham FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 0.5

13 of 24 top Polymarket traders hold Over (54%) · Over at 95¢ · $17K held · ended Nov 7

Over95¢Under5¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 54%

Total Value

$16.5K

Combined PnL

$45.3

Smart Money Entry

74.5¢ → 94.5¢

+27% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

13 of 24 top traders (54%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over95%

Under6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over13 traders

Total Value$15.7K

Total Shares16,171

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Under11 traders

Total Value$872.28

Total Shares11,214

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Over — 54%Under — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 56¢	$3.9K	$5.4K	+$1.4K	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
Malfunction.	Overavg 99.9¢	$4.0K	$3.8K	-$217.11	96% 12679-576 (13255)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 63.5¢	$3.0K	$2.8K	-$188.85	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 80.1¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$89.46	56% 8738-6795 (15533)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 67.4¢	$1.1K	$914.58	+$19.4	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
ocr7	Overavg 99¢	$640.55	$611.43	-$29.12	55% 1405-1155 (2560)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Overavg 99.9¢	$590.26	$558.64	-$31.63	33% 20011-40834 (60845)
RN1CTR	Underavg 48.6¢	$552.15	$304.81	-$247.34	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
AN Anon455	Overavg 68.8¢	$175.4	$240.98	+$65.57	55% 3814-3145 (6959)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 21.2¢	$392.24	$101.86	-$290.39	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 5¢	$83.28	$91.61	+$0	51% 38228-37447 (75675)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 9.1¢	$140.36	$84.4	-$55.96	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
PA Pan9X	Overavg 83.9¢	$131.49	$68	-$25.97	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	Underavg 5¢	$55.98	$61.58	+$5.6	46% 5316-6151 (11467)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 26.6¢	$270.17	$55.8	-$214.37	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
DA dashattackerCTR	Underavg 16¢	$160	$55	-$105	73% 3120-1177 (4297)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 33.1¢	$265.05	$44.11	-$220.94	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Underavg 2.7¢	$19.64	$39.67	+$20.03	58% 3248-2345 (5593)
dips.CTR<$100	Underavg 2.7¢	$15.92	$32.2	+$16.28	47% 11040-12658 (23698)
AR ARocky33<$100	Overavg 96.2¢	$24.05	$23.63	-$0.42	76% 4579-1422 (6001)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Overavg 48¢	$10.83	$21.32	+$10.49	50% 21821-22062 (43883)
PA pauleta23<$100	Overavg 97¢	$10	$9.74	-$0.26	65% 24597-12971 (37568)
LR lryyy<$100	Overavg 80¢	$4	$4.73	+$0.72	47% 9585-10702 (20287)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 5¢	$1.12	$1.24	+$0.11	58% 21689-15792 (37481)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$3,933.53

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

Malfunction.

Over

Invested

$4,016.52

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$217.11

Record

96%

12679-576 (13255)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$2,966.39

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$188.85

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$1,159.72

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$89.46

Record

56%

8738-6795 (15533)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$1,101.69

Value

$914.58

PnL

+$19.4

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

ocr7

Over

Invested

$640.55

Value

$611.43

PnL

-$29.12

Record

55%

1405-1155 (2560)

xtxpleasecallme

Over

Invested

$590.26

Value

$558.64

PnL

-$31.63

Record

33%

20011-40834 (60845)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$552.15

Value

$304.81

PnL

-$247.34

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

Anon455

Over

Invested

$175.4

Value

$240.98

PnL

+$65.57

Record

55%

3814-3145 (6959)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$392.24

Value

$101.86

PnL

-$290.39

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$83.28

Value

$91.61

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

38228-37447 (75675)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$140.36

Value

$84.4

PnL

-$55.96

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

Pan9X

Over

Invested

$131.49

Value

$68

PnL

-$25.97

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

hi774cCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$55.98

Value

$61.58

PnL

+$5.6

Record

46%

5316-6151 (11467)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$270.17

Value

$55.8

PnL

-$214.37

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

dashattackerCTR

Under

Invested

$160

Value

$55

PnL

-$105

Record

73%

3120-1177 (4297)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$265.05

Value

$44.11

PnL

-$220.94

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$19.64

Value

$39.67

PnL

+$20.03

Record

58%

3248-2345 (5593)

dips.CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$15.92

Value

$32.2

PnL

+$16.28

Record

47%

11040-12658 (23698)

ARocky33<$100

Over

Invested

$24.05

Value

$23.63

PnL

-$0.42

Record

76%

4579-1422 (6001)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Over

Invested

$10.83

Value

$21.32

PnL

+$10.49

Record

50%

21821-22062 (43883)

pauleta23<$100

Over

Invested

$10

Value

$9.74

PnL

-$0.26

Record

65%

24597-12971 (37568)

lryyy<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$4.73

PnL

+$0.72

Record

47%

9585-10702 (20287)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.12

Value

$1.24

PnL

+$0.11

Record

58%

21689-15792 (37481)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 95%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

13 of 24 top traders (54%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.