Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Natus Vincere, while the market favors TheMongolz (100%). 12 of 30 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner

12 of 30 top Polymarket traders hold Natus Vincere (40%) · Natus Vincere at 0.1¢ · $319K held · ends Nov 7

TheMongolz>99¢Natus Vincere<1¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Natus Vincere

Consensus Traders

Natus Vincere 40%

10 arb excluded

Total Value

$318.8K

Combined PnL

$6.2K

Smart Money Entry

57.9¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

AvoidNatus Vincere at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Natus Vincere

12 of 30 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors TheMongolz 100%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

TheMongolz100%

Natus Vincere0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

TheMongolz18 traders

Total Value$169.8K

Total Shares248,160

Combined PnL+$41.0K

Natus Vincere12 traders

Total Value$91.1K

Total Shares210,282

Combined PnL$-34.8K

TheMongolz — 60%Natus Vincere — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

41% of non-arb traders are on Natus Vincere. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTheMongolz 57% · 7

Diverging

sharpTheMongolz 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrTheMongolz 60% · 25

Diverging

Hand-pickedTheMongolz 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000TheMongolz 62% · 26

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
drainedandpoor	TheMongolzavg 40¢	$15.9K	$39.6K	+$23.8K	48% 662-716 (1378)
RO robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18	TheMongolzavg 41¢	$65.0K	$35.4K	+$8.8K	50% 7665-7810 (15475)
FA fantasy7788CTR	Natus Vincereavg 61¢	$52.6K	$35.3K	$-13.2K	43% 100-134 (234)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	TheMongolzavg 42¢	$24.9K	$34.2K	+$9.3K	53% 6325-5608 (11933)
NS NS13CTR	Natus Vincereavg 57.1¢	$61.8K	$33.4K	$-16.4K	52% 440-406 (846)
0xheavy888	TheMongolzavg 35.9¢	$12.8K	$18.9K	+$6.1K	56% 8212-6519 (14731)
RE redvinny	TheMongolzavg 71.4¢	$32.0K	$18.3K	$-9.4K	75% 1625-538 (2163)
DamwonChampions2026ARB<$100	Natus Vincereavg 47.4¢	$14.2K	$14.2K	+$1.6K	53% 2195-1945 (4140)
└ TheMongolz leg	TheMongolzavg 41.6¢	$5.7K	$8.1K	+$2.5K
└ Natus Vincere leg	Natus Vincereavg 47.4¢	$7.1K	$6.1K	-$916.6
NeimukingCTR	Natus Vincereavg 53.3¢	$17.2K	$13.2K	$-3.9K	60% 70-46 (116)
minjiARB<$100	TheMongolzavg 44.1¢	$7.7K	$9.4K	+$1.7K	52% 1910-1754 (3664)
└ TheMongolz leg	TheMongolzavg 44.1¢	$4.3K	$5.8K	+$1.5K
└ Natus Vincere leg	Natus Vincereavg 38.1¢	$3.4K	$3.7K	+$258.3
forsenxd	TheMongolzavg 47¢	$7.3K	$9.2K	+$1.9K	53% 1117-978 (2095)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Natus Vincereavg 56.2¢	$8.4K	$8.1K	-$329.52	52% 14644-13309 (27953)
└ Natus Vincere leg	Natus Vincereavg 56.2¢	$5.7K	$4.2K	$-1.5K
└ TheMongolz leg	TheMongolzavg 40.7¢	$2.7K	$3.9K	+$1.2K
WH white-rabbitARB<$100	Natus Vincereavg 37.7¢	$5.9K	$7.4K	+$1.5K	46% 206-238 (444)
└ Natus Vincere leg	Natus Vincereavg 37.7¢	$3.5K	$3.8K	+$308.03
└ TheMongolz leg	TheMongolzavg 38.9¢	$2.4K	$3.6K	+$1.2K
BL black-rabbitARB<$100	Natus Vincereavg 41.1¢	$5.7K	$7.0K	+$1.3K	54% 2065-1774 (3839)
└ TheMongolz leg	TheMongolzavg 38.9¢	$2.5K	$3.9K	+$1.3K
└ Natus Vincere leg	Natus Vincereavg 41.1¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	-$11.19
LO lonmi2511	TheMongolzavg 43.2¢	$4.6K	$6.3K	+$1.7K	55% 1424-1175 (2599)
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100	TheMongolzavg 44.9¢	$3.9K	$4.3K	+$368.69	57% 19420-14370 (33790)
└ TheMongolz leg	TheMongolzavg 44.9¢	$2.3K	$3.0K	+$727.27
└ Natus Vincere leg	Natus Vincereavg 52.8¢	$1.6K	$1.2K	-$358.58
FK fkALG2FalconsTES	TheMongolzavg 42.7¢	$10.5K	$3.3K	+$1.9K	57% 2123-1578 (3701)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554ARB<$100	TheMongolzavg 39.7¢	$2.3K	$3.3K	+$981.67	54% 3505-3037 (6542)
└ TheMongolz leg	TheMongolzavg 39.7¢	$1.5K	$2.2K	+$709.48
└ Natus Vincere leg	Natus Vincereavg 31¢	$849.41	$1.1K	+$272.19
Future-Tarot-TraderCTR	Natus Vincereavg 56.2¢	$3.9K	$2.8K	-$93.09	64% 1279-728 (2007)
CA Catch8877CTR	Natus Vincereavg 58¢	$3.4K	$2.8K	-$577.18	53% 171-149 (320)
PA pauleta23ARB<$100	Natus Vincereavg 47.5¢	$2.5K	$2.7K	+$151.48	66% 24433-12487 (36920)
└ Natus Vincere leg	Natus Vincereavg 47.5¢	$1.6K	$1.3K	-$212.54
└ TheMongolz leg	TheMongolzavg 42.7¢	$953.02	$1.3K	+$364.02
0X 0xD487f513cfeAD22d76B6db4567c756b3Cf250	TheMongolzavg 98.8¢	$5.1K	$2.4K	$-2.6K	97% 3797-136 (3933)
vtcchampion52CTR	Natus Vincereavg 53.8¢	$2.2K	$1.4K	-$754.52	48% 1171-1257 (2428)
GT gt7238ARB<$100	Natus Vincereavg 40.7¢	$844.47	$1.3K	+$458.55	45% 666-823 (1489)
└ TheMongolz leg	TheMongolzavg 18.9¢	$213.31	$666.7	+$453.39
└ Natus Vincere leg	Natus Vincereavg 40.7¢	$631.16	$636.32	+$5.16
CA calculate10CTR	Natus Vincereavg 41.6¢	$4.1K	$921.38	+$704.67	54% 1327-1144 (2471)

drainedandpoor

TheMongolz

Invested

$15,861.6

Value

$39.6K

PnL

+$23.8K

Record

48%

662-716 (1378)

robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18

TheMongolz

Invested

$64,999.89

Value

$35.4K

PnL

+$8.8K

Record

50%

7665-7810 (15475)

fantasy7788CTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$52,600.19

Value

$35.3K

PnL

$-13.2K

Record

43%

100-134 (234)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

TheMongolz

Invested

$24,866.09

Value

$34.2K

PnL

+$9.3K

Record

53%

6325-5608 (11933)

NS13CTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$61,830.45

Value

$33.4K

PnL

$-16.4K

Record

52%

440-406 (846)

0xheavy888

TheMongolz

Invested

$12,813.39

Value

$18.9K

PnL

+$6.1K

Record

56%

8212-6519 (14731)

redvinny

TheMongolz

Invested

$31,977.63

Value

$18.3K

PnL

$-9.4K

Record

75%

1625-538 (2163)

DamwonChampions2026ARB<$100

Natus Vincere

Invested

$14,178.59

Value

$14.2K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

53%

2195-1945 (4140)

Both legs:

TheMongolz$5,700.8641.6¢+$2.5K

Natus Vincere$7,068.0147.4¢-$916.6

NeimukingCTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$17,159.41

Value

$13.2K

PnL

$-3.9K

Record

60%

70-46 (116)

minjiARB<$100

TheMongolz

Invested

$7,727.83

Value

$9.4K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

52%

1910-1754 (3664)

Both legs:

TheMongolz$4,296.1344.1¢+$1.5K

Natus Vincere$3,431.738.1¢+$258.3

forsenxd

TheMongolz

Invested

$7,314.16

Value

$9.2K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

53%

1117-978 (2095)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Natus Vincere

Invested

$8,409.58

Value

$8.1K

PnL

-$329.52

Record

52%

14644-13309 (27953)

Both legs:

Natus Vincere$5,712.8656.2¢$-1.5K

TheMongolz$2,696.7240.7¢+$1.2K

white-rabbitARB<$100

Natus Vincere

Invested

$5,890.77

Value

$7.4K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

46%

206-238 (444)

Both legs:

Natus Vincere$3,493.4937.7¢+$308.03

TheMongolz$2,397.2838.9¢+$1.2K

black-rabbitARB<$100

Natus Vincere

Invested

$5,726.14

Value

$7.0K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

54%

2065-1774 (3839)

Both legs:

TheMongolz$2,543.0438.9¢+$1.3K

Natus Vincere$3,183.141.1¢-$11.19

lonmi2511

TheMongolz

Invested

$4,615.1

Value

$6.3K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

55%

1424-1175 (2599)

BillBenter2026ARB<$100

TheMongolz

Invested

$3,908.83

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$368.69

Record

57%

19420-14370 (33790)

Both legs:

TheMongolz$2,309.5944.9¢+$727.27

Natus Vincere$1,599.2452.8¢-$358.58

fkALG2FalconsTES

TheMongolz

Invested

$10,535.29

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

57%

2123-1578 (3701)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554ARB<$100

TheMongolz

Invested

$2,309.14

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$981.67

Record

54%

3505-3037 (6542)

Both legs:

TheMongolz$1,459.7439.7¢+$709.48

Natus Vincere$849.4131¢+$272.19

Future-Tarot-TraderCTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$3,938.9

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$93.09

Record

64%

1279-728 (2007)

Catch8877CTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$3,361.21

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$577.18

Record

53%

171-149 (320)

pauleta23ARB<$100

Natus Vincere

Invested

$2,515.54

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$151.48

Record

66%

24433-12487 (36920)

Both legs:

Natus Vincere$1,562.5147.5¢-$212.54

TheMongolz$953.0242.7¢+$364.02

0xD487f513cfeAD22d76B6db4567c756b3Cf250

TheMongolz

Invested

$5,059.84

Value

$2.4K

PnL

$-2.6K

Record

97%

3797-136 (3933)

vtcchampion52CTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$2,170.65

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$754.52

Record

48%

1171-1257 (2428)

gt7238ARB<$100

Natus Vincere

Invested

$844.47

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$458.55

Record

45%

666-823 (1489)

Both legs:

TheMongolz$213.3118.9¢+$453.39

Natus Vincere$631.1640.7¢+$5.16

calculate10CTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$4,122.28

Value

$921.38

PnL

+$704.67

Record

54%

1327-1144 (2471)

Research grade

AvoidNatus Vincere at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Natus Vincere

12 of 30 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors TheMongolz 100%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

41% of non-arb traders are on Natus Vincere. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTheMongolz 57% · 7

Diverging

sharpTheMongolz 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrTheMongolz 60% · 25

Diverging

Hand-pickedTheMongolz 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000TheMongolz 62% · 26

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Natus Vincere wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.