Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET

22 of 35 top Polymarket traders hold Down (63%) · Down at 100¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 9

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 63%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.7K

Combined PnL

$738.86

Smart Money Entry

73.7¢ → 100¢

+36% since entry · 22 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

22 of 35 top traders (63%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down22 traders

Total Value$8.2K

Total Shares8,209

Combined PnL+$279.29

Up13 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares5,280

Combined PnL+$459.57

Down — 63%Up — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 87.7¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$5.44	—
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 64.4¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$14.47	—
BL blue.birds	Downavg 74.8¢	$935.16	$885.11	-$7.9	—
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 64.1¢	$681.32	$695.45	+$20.14	—
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 81.9¢	$638.68	$615.33	-$23.35	—
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 56.2¢	$510.95	$555.1	+$44.15	—
BO bosonaCTR	Upavg 14.8¢	$219.16	$541.64	+$322.48	—
10 1000monkeys	Downavg 77.4¢	$523.26	$506.02	-$17.25	—
FairValueMachine	Downavg 54.7¢	$352.52	$492.53	+$163.27	—
AL almachCTR	Upavg 16.9¢	$265.42	$412.71	+$147.29	—
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 16.2¢	$199.22	$372.96	+$173.74	—
└ Up leg	Upavg 16.2¢	$104.21	$241.58	+$137.37
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.2¢	$95.02	$131.39	+$36.37
MO mo-moneyCTR	Upavg 16.5¢	$163.4	$360.77	+$197.37	—
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 69.9¢	$340.94	$346.93	+$5.99	—
└ Down leg	Downavg 69.9¢	$243.08	$217.33	-$25.75
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.3¢	$97.86	$129.6	+$31.74
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Downavg 53.9¢	$219.48	$282.52	+$65.04	—
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 64.6¢	$201.1	$213.65	+$14.22	—
NIULAI4CTR	Upavg 47.4¢	$315.74	$176.58	-$139.16	—
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Downavg 90.4¢	$142.5	$154.28	+$11.78	—
PA PapeasyARB<$100	Downavg 58¢	$101.63	$136.62	+$34.99	—
└ Down leg	Downavg 58¢	$73.93	$93.69	+$19.76
└ Up leg	Upavg 17.1¢	$27.7	$42.93	+$15.23
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 81.9¢	$117.83	$108.32	-$9.52	—
WZ wzbbb<$100	Downavg 63.3¢	$86.86	$99.15	+$27.03	—
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Downavg 76¢	$129.29	$99.01	-$30.28	—
HO hoodquant<$100	Downavg 99¢	$86.13	$86.57	+$0.44	—
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 87.7¢	$74.55	$84.96	+$10.41	—
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 52.9¢	$83.12	$79.29	-$3.84	—
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 92¢	$81.96	$72.49	-$9.47	—

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$1,982.25

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$5.44

Record

—

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$1,100.25

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$14.47

Record

—

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$935.16

Value

$885.11

PnL

-$7.9

Record

—

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$681.32

Value

$695.45

PnL

+$20.14

Record

—

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$638.68

Value

$615.33

PnL

-$23.35

Record

—

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$510.95

Value

$555.1

PnL

+$44.15

Record

—

bosonaCTR

Invested

$219.16

Value

$541.64

PnL

+$322.48

Record

—

1000monkeys

Down

Invested

$523.26

Value

$506.02

PnL

-$17.25

Record

—

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$352.52

Value

$492.53

PnL

+$163.27

Record

—

almachCTR

Invested

$265.42

Value

$412.71

PnL

+$147.29

Record

—

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$199.22

Value

$372.96

PnL

+$173.74

Record

—

Both legs:

Up$104.2116.2¢+$137.37

Down$95.0245.2¢+$36.37

mo-moneyCTR

Invested

$163.4

Value

$360.77

PnL

+$197.37

Record

—

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$340.94

Value

$346.93

PnL

+$5.99

Record

—

Both legs:

Down$243.0869.9¢-$25.75

Up$97.8628.3¢+$31.74

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Down

Invested

$219.48

Value

$282.52

PnL

+$65.04

Record

—

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$201.1

Value

$213.65

PnL

+$14.22

Record

—

NIULAI4CTR

Invested

$315.74

Value

$176.58

PnL

-$139.16

Record

—

drfc4eybh7i8

Down

Invested

$142.5

Value

$154.28

PnL

+$11.78

Record

—

PapeasyARB<$100

Down

Invested

$101.63

Value

$136.62

PnL

+$34.99

Record

—

Both legs:

Invested

$117.83

Value

$108.32

PnL

-$9.52

Record

—

wzbbb<$100

Down

Invested

$86.86

Value

$99.15

PnL

+$27.03

Record

—

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Down

Invested

$129.29

Value

$99.01

PnL

-$30.28

Record

—

hoodquant<$100

Down

Invested

$86.13

Value

$86.57

PnL

+$0.44

Record

—

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$74.55

Value

$84.96

PnL

+$10.41

Record

—

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$83.12

Value

$79.29

PnL

-$3.84

Record

—

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$81.96

Value

$72.49

PnL

-$9.47

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

22 of 35 top traders (63%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.