Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET

22 of 32 top Polymarket traders hold Down (69%) · Down at 100¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 9

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 69%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.1K

Combined PnL

$526.37

Smart Money Entry

71.8¢ → 100¢

+39% since entry · 22 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

22 of 32 top traders (69%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down22 traders

Total Value$9.2K

Total Shares9,247

Combined PnL+$530.34

Up10 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,985

Combined PnL-$3.97

Down — 69%Up — 31%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$7.83	—
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 84.2¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$22.03	—
BO bosona	Downavg 55.9¢	$854.67	$1.2K	+$350.2	—
MO mo-money	Downavg 68.3¢	$725.4	$970.57	+$245.17	—
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 65.4¢	$1.2K	$970.23	-$187.98	—
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR	Upavg 53.7¢	$757.48	$793.38	+$48.8	—
BL blue.birds	Downavg 54.9¢	$588.13	$618.19	+$30.06	—
10 1000monkeys	Downavg 61.5¢	$431.93	$422.8	-$9.12	—
machinelearned	Downavg 49.7¢	$361.83	$405.47	+$43.63	—
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 50.3¢	$338.54	$373.68	+$35.15	—
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Downavg 65.9¢	$244.29	$365.48	+$121.19	—
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 63.7¢	$392.99	$364.11	-$28.88	—
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.9¢	$169.44	$264.06	+$94.63
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.7¢	$223.55	$100.05	-$123.5
AL almach	Downavg 78.1¢	$333.83	$355.66	+$21.83	—
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 75.9¢	$414.25	$307.35	-$106.9	—
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 35.6¢	$202.58	$274.15	+$71.57	—
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Downavg 83.4¢	$153.14	$136.57	-$16.49	—
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 78.9¢	$145.92	$112.08	-$33.84	—
x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR	Upavg 48.3¢	$97.8	$102.66	+$4.87	—
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972ARB<$100	Upavg 76¢	$90.57	$91.42	+$0.85	—
└ Up leg	Upavg 76¢	$71.61	$70.67	-$0.94
└ Down leg	Downavg 22.8¢	$18.96	$20.75	+$1.79
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 97.6¢	$84.89	$86.56	+$1.66	—
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 64.7¢	$60.38	$61.86	+$1.48	—
└ Up leg	Upavg 64.7¢	$49.23	$40.69	-$8.53
└ Down leg	Downavg 24.5¢	$11.15	$21.17	+$10.01
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 91.9¢	$59.13	$46.61	-$12.52	—
HC Hcrystallash<$100	Downavg 65.2¢	$26.8	$41.09	+$14.29	—
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 67.4¢	$45.32	$40.14	-$5.18	—
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 75¢	$29	$38.64	+$9.65	—

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,499.56

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$7.83

Record

—

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$1,281.85

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$22.03

Record

—

bosona

Down

Invested

$854.67

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$350.2

Record

—

mo-money

Down

Invested

$725.4

Value

$970.57

PnL

+$245.17

Record

—

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$1,158.22

Value

$970.23

PnL

-$187.98

Record

—

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR

Invested

$757.48

Value

$793.38

PnL

+$48.8

Record

—

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$588.13

Value

$618.19

PnL

+$30.06

Record

—

1000monkeys

Down

Invested

$431.93

Value

$422.8

PnL

-$9.12

Record

—

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$361.83

Value

$405.47

PnL

+$43.63

Record

—

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$338.54

Value

$373.68

PnL

+$35.15

Record

—

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Down

Invested

$244.29

Value

$365.48

PnL

+$121.19

Record

—

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$392.99

Value

$364.11

PnL

-$28.88

Record

—

Both legs:

Down$169.4445.9¢+$94.63

Up$223.5563.7¢-$123.5

almach

Down

Invested

$333.83

Value

$355.66

PnL

+$21.83

Record

—

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$414.25

Value

$307.35

PnL

-$106.9

Record

—

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$202.58

Value

$274.15

PnL

+$71.57

Record

—

drfc4eybh7i8

Down

Invested

$153.14

Value

$136.57

PnL

-$16.49

Record

—

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$145.92

Value

$112.08

PnL

-$33.84

Record

—

x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR

Invested

$97.8

Value

$102.66

PnL

+$4.87

Record

—

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972ARB<$100

Invested

$90.57

Value

$91.42

PnL

+$0.85

Record

—

Both legs:

Up$71.6176¢-$0.94

Down$18.9622.8¢+$1.79

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$84.89

Value

$86.56

PnL

+$1.66

Record

—

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$60.38

Value

$61.86

PnL

+$1.48

Record

—

Both legs:

Up$49.2364.7¢-$8.53

Down$11.1524.5¢+$10.01

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$59.13

Value

$46.61

PnL

-$12.52

Record

—

Hcrystallash<$100

Down

Invested

$26.8

Value

$41.09

PnL

+$14.29

Record

—

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$45.32

Value

$40.14

PnL

-$5.18

Record

—

asdcaxz<$100

Down

Invested

$29

Value

$38.64

PnL

+$9.65

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

22 of 32 top traders (69%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.