Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET

22 of 30 top Polymarket traders hold Down (73%) · Down at 98¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 9

Up3¢Down97¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 73%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

-$34.39

Smart Money Entry

84.3¢ → 97.5¢

+16% since entry · 22 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

22 of 30 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up3%

Down98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down22 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares3,615

Combined PnL+$237.73

Up8 traders

Total Value$229.48

Total Shares2,759

Combined PnL-$272.12

Down — 73%Up — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 90.4¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$75.76	—
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972	Downavg 79¢	$433.16	$518.29	+$85.13	—
machinelearned	Downavg 83¢	$362.43	$352.13	-$10.3	—
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 20.2¢	$184.77	$167.61	-$17.16	—
└ Up leg	Upavg 20.2¢	$121.66	$99.18	-$22.48
└ Down leg	Downavg 77¢	$63.11	$68.43	+$5.33
BL blue.birds	Downavg 78¢	$119.72	$148.26	+$28.54	—
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 81.7¢	$131.19	$130.33	-$0.86	—
10 1000monkeys	Downavg 78.4¢	$111.05	$116.46	+$5.41	—
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 79.5¢	$81.42	$83.01	+$1.6	—
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100	Downavg 77¢	$65.07	$64.64	-$0.42	—
MO mo-moneyCTR	Upavg 13.5¢	$136.55	$55.81	-$80.74	—
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 49.9¢	$54	$54.6	+$0.6	—
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 83¢	$50.81	$53.54	+$2.73	—
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Downavg 75.3¢	$71.69	$53.39	+$16.79	—
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 80¢	$49	$47.69	+$0.04	—
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 76¢	$38	$45.25	+$7.25	—
BO bosonaCTR	Upavg 15.9¢	$124.12	$43.04	-$81.08	—
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Downavg 78¢	$39	$38.25	-$0.75	—
HC Hcrystallash<$100	Downavg 64.5¢	$28.8	$37.26	+$8.46	—
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 80¢	$34.25	$32.95	-$1.3	—
FairValueMachine<$100	Downavg 79¢	$29.2	$32.5	+$3.3	—
AL almachCTR	Upavg 21.6¢	$122.82	$31.28	-$91.55	—
WZ wzbbb<$100	Downavg 55.7¢	$24.8	$22.06	-$2.74	—
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 87.5¢	$18.6	$20.08	+$1.48	—
ohioism<$100	Downavg 95¢	$19	$18.9	-$0.1	—
GO GoodFallenCTR<$100	Upavg 17.7¢	$26.18	$18.49	-$7.69	—

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$1,567.7

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$75.76

Record

—

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972

Down

Invested

$433.16

Value

$518.29

PnL

+$85.13

Record

—

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$362.43

Value

$352.13

PnL

-$10.3

Record

—

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$184.77

Value

$167.61

PnL

-$17.16

Record

—

Both legs:

Up$121.6620.2¢-$22.48

Down$63.1177¢+$5.33

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$119.72

Value

$148.26

PnL

+$28.54

Record

—

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$131.19

Value

$130.33

PnL

-$0.86

Record

—

1000monkeys

Down

Invested

$111.05

Value

$116.46

PnL

+$5.41

Record

—

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Down

Invested

$81.42

Value

$83.01

PnL

+$1.6

Record

—

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100

Down

Invested

$65.07

Value

$64.64

PnL

-$0.42

Record

—

mo-moneyCTR

Invested

$136.55

Value

$55.81

PnL

-$80.74

Record

—

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$54

Value

$54.6

PnL

+$0.6

Record

—

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$50.81

Value

$53.54

PnL

+$2.73

Record

—

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Down

Invested

$71.69

Value

$53.39

PnL

+$16.79

Record

—

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$49

Value

$47.69

PnL

+$0.04

Record

—

asdcaxz<$100

Down

Invested

$38

Value

$45.25

PnL

+$7.25

Record

—

bosonaCTR

Invested

$124.12

Value

$43.04

PnL

-$81.08

Record

—

uninformedfloww<$100

Down

Invested

$39

Value

$38.25

PnL

-$0.75

Record

—

Hcrystallash<$100

Down

Invested

$28.8

Value

$37.26

PnL

+$8.46

Record

—

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$34.25

Value

$32.95

PnL

-$1.3

Record

—

FairValueMachine<$100

Down

Invested

$29.2

Value

$32.5

PnL

+$3.3

Record

—

almachCTR

Invested

$122.82

Value

$31.28

PnL

-$91.55

Record

—

wzbbb<$100

Down

Invested

$24.8

Value

$22.06

PnL

-$2.74

Record

—

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$18.6

Value

$20.08

PnL

+$1.48

Record

—

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$19

Value

$18.9

PnL

-$0.1

Record

—

GoodFallenCTR<$100

Invested

$26.18

Value

$18.49

PnL

-$7.69

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralDown at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

22 of 30 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.42

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.