Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET

17 of 33 top Polymarket traders hold Up (52%) · Up at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 9

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 52%

Total Value

$4.8K

Combined PnL

-$261.07

Smart Money Entry

89.8¢ → 100¢

+11% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

17 of 33 top traders (52%)16 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up17 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares4,630

Combined PnL+$98.47

Down16 traders

Total Value$360.39

Total Shares3,719

Combined PnL-$359.54

Up — 52%Down — 48%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 96.8¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$81.15	—
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.7¢	$461.78	$465.69	+$3.91	—
10 1000monkeys	Upavg 71.8¢	$293.8	$323.39	+$29.59	—
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 80¢	$310.65	$306.76	-$3.88	—
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 69.7¢	$140.69	$168.82	+$28.13	—
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 83.1¢	$135.16	$126.65	-$8.03	—
BL blue.birds	Upavg 87.9¢	$159.98	$124.25	-$35.73	—
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 89.8¢	$81.09	$73.68	-$3.48	—
PL ply-pm0<$100	Upavg 71.5¢	$71.42	$72.42	+$1	—
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 50¢	$64.72	$65.36	+$0.65	—
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Downavg 30¢	$60	$57	-$3	—
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR<$100	Downavg 26.2¢	$96.62	$52.43	-$44.19	—
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 81.1¢	$32.91	$40.39	+$7.48	—
PA PapeasyCTR<$100	Downavg 24.4¢	$73.3	$40.14	-$33.16	—
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Downavg 9.1¢	$81.34	$40.05	-$41.29	—
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972CTR<$100	Downavg 31.2¢	$57.7	$37.66	-$20.04	—
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR<$100	Downavg 18.6¢	$91.59	$32.51	-$59.08	—
MO mo-moneyCTR	Downavg 21.4¢	$148.45	$31.18	-$117.27	—
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100	Downavg 24.4¢	$25.2	$30.67	+$5.46	—
BoneOhio<$100	Upavg 74¢	$25.42	$27.14	+$1.72	—
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 94.9¢	$21.82	$19.93	-$0.72	—
x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100	Upavg 77.8¢	$18.85	$18.25	-$0.6	—
PB PBot-5CTR<$100	Downavg 24¢	$14.4	$15.9	+$1.5	—
AL almachCTR<$100	Downavg 10.2¢	$60.22	$14.8	-$45.42	—
ohioism<$100	Upavg 80¢	$12	$11.85	-$0.15	—

Bonereaper

Invested

$2,506.33

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$81.15

Record

—

hoodquant

Invested

$461.78

Value

$465.69

PnL

+$3.91

Record

—

1000monkeys

Invested

$293.8

Value

$323.39

PnL

+$29.59

Record

—

uninformedfloww

Invested

$310.65

Value

$306.76

PnL

-$3.88

Record

—

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$140.69

Value

$168.82

PnL

+$28.13

Record

—

GoodFallen

Invested

$135.16

Value

$126.65

PnL

-$8.03

Record

—

blue.birds

Invested

$159.98

Value

$124.25

PnL

-$35.73

Record

—

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$81.09

Value

$73.68

PnL

-$3.48

Record

—

ply-pm0<$100

Invested

$71.42

Value

$72.42

PnL

+$1

Record

—

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$64.72

Value

$65.36

PnL

+$0.65

Record

—

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$60

Value

$57

PnL

-$3

Record

—

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$96.62

Value

$52.43

PnL

-$44.19

Record

—

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$32.91

Value

$40.39

PnL

+$7.48

Record

—

PapeasyCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$73.3

Value

$40.14

PnL

-$33.16

Record

—

bosonaCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$81.34

Value

$40.05

PnL

-$41.29

Record

—

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$57.7

Value

$37.66

PnL

-$20.04

Record

—

CrouchPredictionsCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$91.59

Value

$32.51

PnL

-$59.08

Record

—

mo-moneyCTR

Down

Invested

$148.45

Value

$31.18

PnL

-$117.27

Record

—

wzbbbCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$25.2

Value

$30.67

PnL

+$5.46

Record

—

BoneOhio<$100

Invested

$25.42

Value

$27.14

PnL

+$1.72

Record

—

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$21.82

Value

$19.93

PnL

-$0.72

Record

—

x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100

Invested

$18.85

Value

$18.25

PnL

-$0.6

Record

—

PBot-5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$14.4

Value

$15.9

PnL

+$1.5

Record

—

almachCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$60.22

Value

$14.8

PnL

-$45.42

Record

—

ohioism<$100

Invested

$12

Value

$11.85

PnL

-$0.15

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

17 of 33 top traders (52%)16 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.