Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET

21 of 33 top Polymarket traders hold Down (64%) · Down at 100¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 9

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 64%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.4K

Combined PnL

-$327.93

Smart Money Entry

76.8¢ → 100¢

+30% since entry · 21 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

21 of 33 top traders (64%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down21 traders

Total Value$6.0K

Total Shares6,055

Combined PnL+$68.9

Up12 traders

Total Value$762.77

Total Shares2,608

Combined PnL-$396.83

Down — 64%Up — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 87.6¢	$2.9K	$2.8K	-$71.69	—
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 61.4¢	$646.65	$645.08	-$1.57	—
10 1000monkeys	Downavg 65.4¢	$512.8	$466.32	-$46.49	—
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 39¢	$362.13	$384.09	+$21.96	—
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.1¢	$113.28	$202.07	+$88.79
└ Up leg	Upavg 39¢	$248.86	$182.02	-$66.83
BL blue.birds	Downavg 57.8¢	$249.08	$310.03	+$60.95	—
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 52.7¢	$198.06	$309.96	+$111.91	—
BO bosonaCTR	Upavg 31.8¢	$447.32	$290.58	-$111.12	—
GO GoodFallenCTR	Upavg 36.6¢	$315.17	$286.03	-$29.14	—
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 72.1¢	$263.99	$250.21	-$13.78	—
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Upavg 31.5¢	$199.9	$233.07	+$33.16	—
└ Up leg	Upavg 31.5¢	$166.08	$171.36	+$5.28
└ Down leg	Downavg 37¢	$33.82	$61.7	+$27.88
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 80¢	$164	$204.9	+$40.9	—
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972	Downavg 78.2¢	$216.62	$169.52	-$47.1	—
machinelearned	Downavg 63¢	$110.62	$148.52	+$37.89	—
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Downavg 70.9¢	$118.15	$118.7	+$2.76	—
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 56.6¢	$142.1	$100.9	-$41.2	—
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.6¢	$121.6	$65.56	-$56.04
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.3¢	$20.5	$35.35	+$14.85
AS asdaefef	Downavg 93.7¢	$104.43	$96.43	-$6.66	—
x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR	Upavg 36.4¢	$111.85	$86.36	-$25.49	—
FairValueMachine<$100	Downavg 81.9¢	$76.07	$76.26	+$0.19	—
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 72.6¢	$70.82	$71.98	+$2.5	—
HO hoodquant<$100	Downavg 98¢	$63.7	$64.68	+$0.97	—
PL ply-pm0<$100	Downavg 86¢	$82.6	$60.5	-$22.1	—
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 58¢	$29	$49.98	+$20.98	—
OhioAICTR<$100	Upavg 37.8¢	$84.08	$46.89	-$37.19	—
HC Hcrystallash<$100	Downavg 72¢	$28.8	$29.8	+$1	—
AL almachCTR	Upavg 31.4¢	$132.66	$27.43	-$105.23	—

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$2,902.54

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$71.69

Record

—

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$646.65

Value

$645.08

PnL

-$1.57

Record

—

1000monkeys

Down

Invested

$512.8

Value

$466.32

PnL

-$46.49

Record

—

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$362.13

Value

$384.09

PnL

+$21.96

Record

—

Both legs:

Down$113.2840.1¢+$88.79

Up$248.8639¢-$66.83

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$249.08

Value

$310.03

PnL

+$60.95

Record

—

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$198.06

Value

$309.96

PnL

+$111.91

Record

—

bosonaCTR

Invested

$447.32

Value

$290.58

PnL

-$111.12

Record

—

GoodFallenCTR

Invested

$315.17

Value

$286.03

PnL

-$29.14

Record

—

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$263.99

Value

$250.21

PnL

-$13.78

Record

—

mo-moneyARB<$100

Invested

$199.9

Value

$233.07

PnL

+$33.16

Record

—

Both legs:

Invested

$164

Value

$204.9

PnL

+$40.9

Record

—

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972

Down

Invested

$216.62

Value

$169.52

PnL

-$47.1

Record

—

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$110.62

Value

$148.52

PnL

+$37.89

Record

—

drfc4eybh7i8

Down

Invested

$118.15

Value

$118.7

PnL

+$2.76

Record

—

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$142.1

Value

$100.9

PnL

-$41.2

Record

—

Both legs:

Up$121.656.6¢-$56.04

Down$20.540.3¢+$14.85

asdaefef

Down

Invested

$104.43

Value

$96.43

PnL

-$6.66

Record

—

x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR

Invested

$111.85

Value

$86.36

PnL

-$25.49

Record

—

FairValueMachine<$100

Down

Invested

$76.07

Value

$76.26

PnL

+$0.19

Record

—

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$70.82

Value

$71.98

PnL

+$2.5

Record

—

hoodquant<$100

Down

Invested

$63.7

Value

$64.68

PnL

+$0.97

Record

—

ply-pm0<$100

Down

Invested

$82.6

Value

$60.5

PnL

-$22.1

Record

—

asdcaxz<$100

Down

Invested

$29

Value

$49.98

PnL

+$20.98

Record

—

OhioAICTR<$100

Invested

$84.08

Value

$46.89

PnL

-$37.19

Record

—

Hcrystallash<$100

Down

Invested

$28.8

Value

$29.8

PnL

+$1

Record

—

almachCTR

Invested

$132.66

Value

$27.43

PnL

-$105.23

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

21 of 33 top traders (64%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.