Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET

15 of 31 top Polymarket traders hold Up (48%) · Up at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 9

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 48%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.6K

Combined PnL

-$824.88

Smart Money Entry

73.8¢ → 100¢

+35% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 31 top traders (48%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up15 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares3,741

Combined PnL+$302.63

Down16 traders

Total Value$705.78

Total Shares4,929

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Up — 48%Down — 52%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 82.3¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$168.62	—
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 60.7¢	$658.23	$705.23	+$47	—
10 1000monkeys	Upavg 59.8¢	$265.42	$276.65	+$11.23	—
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Downavg 29.4¢	$364.53	$242.82	-$108.21	—
BL blue.birdsCTR	Downavg 31.2¢	$259.81	$129.1	-$52.2	—
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 77.9¢	$110.74	$118.99	+$8.25	—
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 43.4¢	$69.25	$112.37	+$43.12	—
AS asdaefef	Upavg 95.4¢	$118.06	$97.63	-$19.71	—
AS asdcaxz<$100	Upavg 64.1¢	$48.63	$75.85	+$27.23	—
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 37¢	$73.96	$72.46	-$1.5	—
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.1¢	$22.78	$44.1	+$21.32
└ Down leg	Downavg 37¢	$51.18	$28.37	-$22.82
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 26.1¢	$119.08	$69.31	-$49.78	—
└ Up leg	Upavg 57¢	$28.5	$46.75	+$18.25
└ Down leg	Downavg 26.1¢	$90.58	$22.56	-$68.03
FairValueMachine<$100	Upavg 83¢	$79.3	$67.5	+$2.59	—
GO GoodFallenCTR<$100	Downavg 27.8¢	$88.23	$66.5	-$21.74	—
MO mo-moneyCTR	Downavg 19.4¢	$191.47	$64.11	-$127.36	—
PA PapeasyARB<$100	Upavg 48¢	$70.46	$59.16	-$11.3	—
└ Down leg	Downavg 66¢	$34.46	$36.28	+$1.83
└ Up leg	Upavg 48¢	$36	$22.88	-$13.13
BO bosonaCTR	Downavg 33.8¢	$297.65	$57.2	-$240.44	—
AL almachCTR	Downavg 40.8¢	$336.83	$53.68	-$283.15	—
G-Penis-MonsterCTR	Downavg 60.5¢	$122.9	$44.78	-$78.12	—
OhioAI<$100	Upavg 48¢	$22.62	$37.3	+$14.68	—
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100	Upavg 54¢	$31.58	$32.68	+$1.1	—
x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100	Upavg 56¢	$35	$30.01	-$2.69	—
BoneOhio<$100	Upavg 91¢	$27.99	$28.15	+$0.15	—
HC Hcrystallash<$100	Upavg 40.5¢	$16.8	$18.89	+$2.09	—
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Downavg 60.2¢	$44.29	$18.57	-$25.72	—
ohioism<$100	Upavg 92¢	$15.13	$13.9	-$1.23	—

Bonereaper

Invested

$1,879.9

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$168.62

Record

—

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$658.23

Value

$705.23

PnL

+$47

Record

—

1000monkeys

Invested

$265.42

Value

$276.65

PnL

+$11.23

Record

—

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Down

Invested

$364.53

Value

$242.82

PnL

-$108.21

Record

—

blue.birdsCTR

Down

Invested

$259.81

Value

$129.1

PnL

-$52.2

Record

—

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$110.74

Value

$118.99

PnL

+$8.25

Record

—

wzbbb

Invested

$69.25

Value

$112.37

PnL

+$43.12

Record

—

asdaefef

Invested

$118.06

Value

$97.63

PnL

-$19.71

Record

—

asdcaxz<$100

Invested

$48.63

Value

$75.85

PnL

+$27.23

Record

—

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$73.96

Value

$72.46

PnL

-$1.5

Record

—

Both legs:

Up$22.7841.1¢+$21.32

Down$51.1837¢-$22.82

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$119.08

Value

$69.31

PnL

-$49.78

Record

—

Both legs:

Up$28.557¢+$18.25

Down$90.5826.1¢-$68.03

FairValueMachine<$100

Invested

$79.3

Value

$67.5

PnL

+$2.59

Record

—

GoodFallenCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$88.23

Value

$66.5

PnL

-$21.74

Record

—

mo-moneyCTR

Down

Invested

$191.47

Value

$64.11

PnL

-$127.36

Record

—

PapeasyARB<$100

Invested

$70.46

Value

$59.16

PnL

-$11.3

Record

—

Both legs:

Invested

$297.65

Value

$57.2

PnL

-$240.44

Record

—

almachCTR

Down

Invested

$336.83

Value

$53.68

PnL

-$283.15

Record

—

G-Penis-MonsterCTR

Down

Invested

$122.9

Value

$44.78

PnL

-$78.12

Record

—

OhioAI<$100

Invested

$22.62

Value

$37.3

PnL

+$14.68

Record

—

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100

Invested

$31.58

Value

$32.68

PnL

+$1.1

Record

—

x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100

Invested

$35

Value

$30.01

PnL

-$2.69

Record

—

BoneOhio<$100

Invested

$27.99

Value

$28.15

PnL

+$0.15

Record

—

Hcrystallash<$100

Invested

$16.8

Value

$18.89

PnL

+$2.09

Record

—

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$44.29

Value

$18.57

PnL

-$25.72

Record

—

ohioism<$100

Invested

$15.13

Value

$13.9

PnL

-$1.23

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 31 top traders (48%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.