Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET

16 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Down (76%) · Down at 80¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 9

Up21¢Down79¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 76%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

-$0.18

Smart Money Entry

67.1¢ → 79.5¢

+18% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 21 top traders (76%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up21%

Down80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down16 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,884

Combined PnL+$3.61

Up5 traders

Total Value$85.85

Total Shares261

Combined PnL-$3.79

Down — 76%Up — 24%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$479.64	$667.51	+$187.88	—
└ Up leg	Upavg 24.3¢	$229.64	$355.01	+$125.38
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$312.5	+$62.5
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 65.7¢	$540.05	$523.28	-$5.87	—
AL almachARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$416.22	$480.89	+$86.27	—
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$235	$350.15	+$121.75
└ Up leg	Upavg 32.4¢	$166.22	$130.74	-$35.48
BO bosonaARB<$100	Upavg 29.5¢	$400.66	$312.94	+$113.51	—
└ Up leg	Upavg 29.5¢	$150.66	$176.46	+$25.81
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$104.19	$136.48	+$87.71
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 72¢	$290	$263.82	-$26.18	—
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 33.7¢	$196.13	$160.64	-$35.49	—
└ Up leg	Upavg 33.7¢	$134.6	$81.94	-$52.66
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.2¢	$61.53	$78.71	+$17.17
10 1000monkeys	Downavg 63.4¢	$160.65	$159.45	-$1.2	—
machinelearned	Downavg 59.7¢	$107	$129.5	+$22.5	—
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Downavg 64¢	$123.12	$118.22	-$4.9	—
└ Down leg	Downavg 64¢	$64	$79.5	+$15.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 31.3¢	$59.12	$38.72	-$20.4
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 56.2¢	$100	$110.89	+$10.89	—
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.2¢	$69.2	$80.7	+$11.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 35.2¢	$30.8	$30.19	-$0.61
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 30.9¢	$93.74	$104.73	+$10.99	—
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.2¢	$43.5	$63.33	+$19.83
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.9¢	$50.24	$41.4	-$8.84
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Downavg 71.6¢	$89.54	$94.87	+$5.33	—
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 76.3¢	$81.94	$85.33	+$3.38	—
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 78¢	$84.38	$72.6	-$11.78	—
└ Down leg	Downavg 78¢	$46.8	$47.7	+$0.9
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.9¢	$37.58	$24.9	-$12.68
x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100	Downavg 54.3¢	$54.61	$64.9	+$10.29	—
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972<$100	Downavg 75.8¢	$70.68	$61.08	-$9.6	—
PL ply-pm0<$100	Downavg 72¢	$55.54	$56.35	+$0.8	—
PA Papeasy<$100	Downavg 50¢	$39.41	$39.09	-$0.32	—
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR<$100	Upavg 30.4¢	$33.32	$29.02	-$4.3	—
FairValueMachine<$100	Downavg 50¢	$22.13	$27.59	+$5.46	—
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 72.3¢	$26.52	$27.34	+$0.82	—
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 35.8¢	$22.77	$21.93	-$0.84	—
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 79¢	$21.66	$18.98	-$2.68	—
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 35.3¢	$15.27	$16.65	+$1.38	—
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 72.9¢	$13.6	$14.83	+$1.23	—

mo-moneyARB<$100

Down

Invested

$479.64

Value

$667.51

PnL

+$187.88

Record

—

Both legs:

Up$229.6424.3¢+$125.38

Down$25050¢+$62.5

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$540.05

Value

$523.28

PnL

-$5.87

Record

—

almachARB<$100

Down

Invested

$416.22

Value

$480.89

PnL

+$86.27

Record

—

Both legs:

Down$23550¢+$121.75

Up$166.2232.4¢-$35.48

bosonaARB<$100

Invested

$400.66

Value

$312.94

PnL

+$113.51

Record

—

Both legs:

Up$150.6629.5¢+$25.81

Down$104.1950¢+$87.71

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$290

Value

$263.82

PnL

-$26.18

Record

—

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$196.13

Value

$160.64

PnL

-$35.49

Record

—

Both legs:

Up$134.633.7¢-$52.66

Down$61.5362.2¢+$17.17

1000monkeys

Down

Invested

$160.65

Value

$159.45

PnL

-$1.2

Record

—

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$107

Value

$129.5

PnL

+$22.5

Record

—

blue.birdsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$123.12

Value

$118.22

PnL

-$4.9

Record

—

Both legs:

Invested

$100

Value

$110.89

PnL

+$10.89

Record

—

Both legs:

Down$69.256.2¢+$11.5

Up$30.835.2¢-$0.61

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$93.74

Value

$104.73

PnL

+$10.99

Record

—

Both legs:

Down$43.551.2¢+$19.83

Up$50.2430.9¢-$8.84

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Down

Invested

$89.54

Value

$94.87

PnL

+$5.33

Record

—

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$81.94

Value

$85.33

PnL

+$3.38

Record

—

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$84.38

Value

$72.6

PnL

-$11.78

Record

—

Both legs:

Down$46.878¢+$0.9

Up$37.5830.9¢-$12.68

x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100

Down

Invested

$54.61

Value

$64.9

PnL

+$10.29

Record

—

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972<$100

Down

Invested

$70.68

Value

$61.08

PnL

-$9.6

Record

—

ply-pm0<$100

Down

Invested

$55.54

Value

$56.35

PnL

+$0.8

Record

—

Papeasy<$100

Down

Invested

$39.41

Value

$39.09

PnL

-$0.32

Record

—

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR<$100

Invested

$33.32

Value

$29.02

PnL

-$4.3

Record

—

FairValueMachine<$100

Down

Invested

$22.13

Value

$27.59

PnL

+$5.46

Record

—

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$26.52

Value

$27.34

PnL

+$0.82

Record

—

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$22.77

Value

$21.93

PnL

-$0.84

Record

—

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Down

Invested

$21.66

Value

$18.98

PnL

-$2.68

Record

—

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$15.27

Value

$16.65

PnL

+$1.38

Record

—

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$13.6

Value

$14.83

PnL

+$1.23

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralDown at 80%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 21 top traders (76%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.6%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$22.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

122.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.