Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET

19 of 35 top Polymarket traders hold Up (54%) · Up at 100¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 9

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 54%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.4K

Combined PnL

$635.32

Smart Money Entry

60.4¢ → 100¢

+66% since entry · 19 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

19 of 35 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up19 traders

Total Value$7.2K

Total Shares7,407

Combined PnL+$819.28

Down16 traders

Total Value$978.79

Total Shares3,858

Combined PnL-$183.95

Up — 54%Down — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 55.7¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$207.49	—
BO bosona	Upavg 39.7¢	$730.55	$1.1K	+$324.1	—
BL blue.birds	Upavg 72.8¢	$746.61	$737.13	-$9.47	—
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 67.6¢	$717.4	$716.05	+$0.45	—
10 1000monkeys	Upavg 71.4¢	$618.14	$666.53	+$48.38	—
AL almachCTR	Downavg 19.7¢	$495.7	$640.04	+$144.35	—
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 67¢	$601.84	$618.43	+$29.06	—
machinelearned	Upavg 51.8¢	$330.57	$459.36	+$128.79	—
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 59.4¢	$293.45	$311.65	+$18.19	—
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Upavg 50¢	$206.73	$277.95	+$71.23	—
FairValueMachine	Upavg 66.3¢	$261.15	$248.63	-$12.52	—
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 72¢	$206.63	$212.3	+$5.67	—
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 50¢	$205.5	$207.56	+$2.06	—
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 74.3¢	$189.31	$196.42	+$7.12	—
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 70.9¢	$178.49	$177.29	-$1.21	—
└ Up leg	Upavg 70.9¢	$123.19	$139.81	+$16.61
└ Down leg	Downavg 28.8¢	$55.3	$37.48	-$17.82
MO mo-moneyCTR	Downavg 19.7¢	$334.32	$165.77	-$168.55	—
x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR	Downavg 32.9¢	$162.25	$109.38	-$33.95	—
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Upavg 81.2¢	$104.49	$92.97	+$2.17	—
AS asdcaxz<$100	Upavg 84.8¢	$88.53	$69.8	-$18.73	—
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 82¢	$37.34	$45.52	+$8.18	—
HC Hcrystallash<$100	Upavg 90¢	$36	$39.98	+$3.98	—
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 99¢	$26.73	$26.87	+$0.13	—
PA PapeasyCTR<$100	Downavg 36.1¢	$18.42	$23.71	+$5.28	—
HS Hsilverbasher<$100	Upavg 31¢	$12.4	$15.4	+$3	—
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 21.7¢	$50.48	$9.03	-$21.66	—

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$1,008.27

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$207.49

Record

—

bosona

Invested

$730.55

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$324.1

Record

—

blue.birds

Invested

$746.61

Value

$737.13

PnL

-$9.47

Record

—

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$717.4

Value

$716.05

PnL

+$0.45

Record

—

1000monkeys

Invested

$618.14

Value

$666.53

PnL

+$48.38

Record

—

almachCTR

Down

Invested

$495.7

Value

$640.04

PnL

+$144.35

Record

—

Bonereaper

Invested

$601.84

Value

$618.43

PnL

+$29.06

Record

—

machinelearned

Invested

$330.57

Value

$459.36

PnL

+$128.79

Record

—

GoodFallen

Invested

$293.45

Value

$311.65

PnL

+$18.19

Record

—

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Invested

$206.73

Value

$277.95

PnL

+$71.23

Record

—

FairValueMachine

Invested

$261.15

Value

$248.63

PnL

-$12.52

Record

—

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$206.63

Value

$212.3

PnL

+$5.67

Record

—

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$205.5

Value

$207.56

PnL

+$2.06

Record

—

ply-pm0

Invested

$189.31

Value

$196.42

PnL

+$7.12

Record

—

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$178.49

Value

$177.29

PnL

-$1.21

Record

—

Both legs:

Up$123.1970.9¢+$16.61

Down$55.328.8¢-$17.82

mo-moneyCTR

Down

Invested

$334.32

Value

$165.77

PnL

-$168.55

Record

—

x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR

Down

Invested

$162.25

Value

$109.38

PnL

-$33.95

Record

—

drfc4eybh7i8

Invested

$104.49

Value

$92.97

PnL

+$2.17

Record

—

asdcaxz<$100

Invested

$88.53

Value

$69.8

PnL

-$18.73

Record

—

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$37.34

Value

$45.52

PnL

+$8.18

Record

—

Hcrystallash<$100

Invested

$36

Value

$39.98

PnL

+$3.98

Record

—

hoodquant<$100

Invested

$26.73

Value

$26.87

PnL

+$0.13

Record

—

PapeasyCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$18.42

Value

$23.71

PnL

+$5.28

Record

—

Hsilverbasher<$100

Invested

$12.4

Value

$15.4

PnL

+$3

Record

—

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$50.48

Value

$9.03

PnL

-$21.66

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

19 of 35 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.