Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET

14 of 29 top Polymarket traders hold Down (48%) · Down at 100¢ · $12K held · ended Nov 9

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 48%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.5K

Combined PnL

$472.03

Smart Money Entry

86.2¢ → 100¢

+16% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 29 top traders (48%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down14 traders

Total Value$9.2K

Total Shares9,222

Combined PnL+$337.23

Up15 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares3,355

Combined PnL+$134.8

Down — 48%Up — 52%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BoneOhio	Downavg 99¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$26.55	—
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 84.9¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$23.94	—
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.5¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$25.96	—
MO mo-money	Downavg 65.8¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$129.49	—
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Upavg 40¢	$732.3	$748.42	+$16.12	—
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 42.7¢	$351.24	$477.58	+$126.34	—
BO bosonaCTR	Upavg 17¢	$310.45	$385.73	+$75.28	—
10 1000monkeysCTR	Upavg 38.7¢	$275.82	$288.59	+$12.77	—
BL blue.birds	Downavg 39.6¢	$122.96	$197.71	+$74.75	—
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99¢	$153.67	$148.04	-$5.63	—
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 70.1¢	$155.85	$146.92	-$8.93	—
AL almachARB<$100	Upavg 6.9¢	$93.85	$142.23	+$48.38	—
└ Down leg	Downavg 29.3¢	$33.9	$111.62	+$77.72
└ Up leg	Upavg 6.9¢	$59.95	$30.61	-$29.33
x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR	Upavg 48.7¢	$130.26	$136.79	+$6.53	—
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 41.9¢	$130.64	$136	+$5.36	—
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.1¢	$62.55	$106.73	+$44.19
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.9¢	$68.1	$29.27	-$38.83
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100	Downavg 32¢	$88.54	$134.95	+$46.41	—
└ Down leg	Downavg 32¢	$54.08	$93.79	+$39.71
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.3¢	$34.47	$41.16	+$6.7
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 58.5¢	$160.56	$132.48	-$28.07	—
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.3¢	$59.12	$105.63	+$46.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.5¢	$101.44	$26.86	-$74.58
AS asdaefef	Downavg 97.8¢	$105.2	$93.77	-$11.43	—
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 47.9¢	$86.16	$90.9	+$4.74	—
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100	Upavg 42.8¢	$81.85	$86.25	+$4.41	—
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 31.7¢	$121.91	$67.88	-$54.03	—
└ Down leg	Downavg 61¢	$30.5	$46.25	+$15.75
└ Up leg	Upavg 31.7¢	$91.41	$21.63	-$69.78
PA Papeasy<$100	Downavg 98¢	$56.12	$55.15	-$0.97	—
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 85¢	$34.93	$29.17	-$5.76	—
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 37¢	$18.5	$22.25	+$3.75	—
pspspsps5<$100	Downavg 34.7¢	$9.53	$19.92	+$10.38	—
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972<$100	Downavg 35.8¢	$17.2	$17.52	+$0.32	—

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$2,972

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$26.55

Record

—

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$1,923.63

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$23.94

Record

—

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,812.11

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$25.96

Record

—

mo-money

Down

Invested

$1,088.69

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$129.49

Record

—

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Invested

$732.3

Value

$748.42

PnL

+$16.12

Record

—

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$351.24

Value

$477.58

PnL

+$126.34

Record

—

bosonaCTR

Invested

$310.45

Value

$385.73

PnL

+$75.28

Record

—

1000monkeysCTR

Invested

$275.82

Value

$288.59

PnL

+$12.77

Record

—

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$122.96

Value

$197.71

PnL

+$74.75

Record

—

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$153.67

Value

$148.04

PnL

-$5.63

Record

—

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$155.85

Value

$146.92

PnL

-$8.93

Record

—

almachARB<$100

Invested

$93.85

Value

$142.23

PnL

+$48.38

Record

—

Both legs:

Down$33.929.3¢+$77.72

Up$59.956.9¢-$29.33

x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR

Invested

$130.26

Value

$136.79

PnL

+$6.53

Record

—

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$130.64

Value

$136

PnL

+$5.36

Record

—

Both legs:

Down$62.5548.1¢+$44.19

Up$68.141.9¢-$38.83

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$88.54

Value

$134.95

PnL

+$46.41

Record

—

Both legs:

Down$54.0832¢+$39.71

Up$34.4737.3¢+$6.7

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$160.56

Value

$132.48

PnL

-$28.07

Record

—

Both legs:

Down$59.1247.3¢+$46.5

Up$101.4458.5¢-$74.58

asdaefef

Down

Invested

$105.2

Value

$93.77

PnL

-$11.43

Record

—

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$86.16

Value

$90.9

PnL

+$4.74

Record

—

wzbbbCTR<$100

Invested

$81.85

Value

$86.25

PnL

+$4.41

Record

—

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$121.91

Value

$67.88

PnL

-$54.03

Record

—

Both legs:

Invested

$56.12

Value

$55.15

PnL

-$0.97

Record

—

asdcaxz<$100

Down

Invested

$34.93

Value

$29.17

PnL

-$5.76

Record

—

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$18.5

Value

$22.25

PnL

+$3.75

Record

—

pspspsps5<$100

Down

Invested

$9.53

Value

$19.92

PnL

+$10.38

Record

—

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972<$100

Down

Invested

$17.2

Value

$17.52

PnL

+$0.32

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 29 top traders (48%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.