Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET

18 of 32 top Polymarket traders hold Up (56%) · Up at 100¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 9

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 56%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.9K

Combined PnL

-$872.46

Smart Money Entry

68.9¢ → 100¢

+45% since entry · 18 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

18 of 32 top traders (56%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up18 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares5,255

Combined PnL-$335.48

Down14 traders

Total Value$804.85

Total Shares3,395

Combined PnL-$536.98

Up — 56%Down — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 74.5¢	$950.42	$941.98	-$8.44	—
10 1000monkeys	Upavg 67.1¢	$880.47	$912.83	+$32.36	—
BL blue.birds	Upavg 75.1¢	$715.36	$702.29	-$13.07	—
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 76.6¢	$1.2K	$656.15	-$353.67	—
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 70.5¢	$652.41	$600.2	-$52.21	—
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100	Upavg 60.4¢	$456.81	$433.43	-$23.38	—
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.4¢	$245.79	$282.61	+$36.82
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.7¢	$211.02	$150.82	-$60.2
BO bosonaARB<$100	Downavg 21.4¢	$372.05	$308.25	-$63.79	—
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.4¢	$131.26	$212.82	+$81.56
└ Down leg	Downavg 21.4¢	$240.78	$95.43	-$145.35
BO BonereaperCTR	Downavg 33.4¢	$470.43	$268.97	-$199.3	—
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 50.8¢	$221.57	$224.72	+$3.15	—
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 49.8¢	$142.22	$170.06	+$27.84	—
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.8¢	$84.72	$107.16	+$22.44
└ Down leg	Downavg 33.8¢	$57.5	$62.9	+$5.4
GO GoodFallenCTR	Downavg 28.8¢	$270.33	$166.92	-$82.05	—
machinelearnedCTR	Downavg 31.7¢	$253.13	$165.58	-$87.56	—
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 60¢	$179.68	$158.05	-$21.63	—
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.1¢	$76.74	$112.56	+$35.82
└ Down leg	Downavg 60¢	$102.94	$45.49	-$57.45
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 60.7¢	$148.03	$152.79	+$4.77	—
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Upavg 65.9¢	$147.46	$142.01	-$5.45	—
OhioAI	Upavg 74.9¢	$117.43	$114.44	+$11.49	—
AL almachCTR	Downavg 14.7¢	$138.23	$108.84	-$29.39	—
BoneOhio	Upavg 53¢	$79.47	$107.21	+$27.74	—
PB PBot-5	Upavg 71.1¢	$107.86	$103.44	-$4.41	—
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100	Upavg 53¢	$54.36	$74.74	+$20.38	—
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 27.9¢	$94.73	$63.14	-$31.6	—
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.4¢	$22.69	$41.17	+$18.47
└ Down leg	Downavg 27.9¢	$72.04	$21.97	-$50.07
AS asdcaxzARB<$100	Upavg 65¢	$57.08	$53.01	-$4.07	—
└ Up leg	Upavg 65¢	$32.5	$32.25	-$0.25
└ Down leg	Downavg 42¢	$24.58	$20.76	-$3.82
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972<$100	Upavg 67.8¢	$48.38	$48.38	+$0.01	—
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 62.5¢	$34.34	$39.31	+$4.97	—
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Downavg 13.7¢	$59.17	$36.79	-$22.38	—

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$950.42

Value

$941.98

PnL

-$8.44

Record

—

1000monkeys

Invested

$880.47

Value

$912.83

PnL

+$32.36

Record

—

blue.birds

Invested

$715.36

Value

$702.29

PnL

-$13.07

Record

—

uninformedfloww

Invested

$1,182.05

Value

$656.15

PnL

-$353.67

Record

—

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$652.41

Value

$600.2

PnL

-$52.21

Record

—

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100

Invested

$456.81

Value

$433.43

PnL

-$23.38

Record

—

Both legs:

Up$245.7960.4¢+$36.82

Down$211.0242.7¢-$60.2

bosonaARB<$100

Down

Invested

$372.05

Value

$308.25

PnL

-$63.79

Record

—

Both legs:

Up$131.2656.4¢+$81.56

Down$240.7821.4¢-$145.35

BonereaperCTR

Down

Invested

$470.43

Value

$268.97

PnL

-$199.3

Record

—

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$221.57

Value

$224.72

PnL

+$3.15

Record

—

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$142.22

Value

$170.06

PnL

+$27.84

Record

—

Both legs:

Invested

$270.33

Value

$166.92

PnL

-$82.05

Record

—

machinelearnedCTR

Down

Invested

$253.13

Value

$165.58

PnL

-$87.56

Record

—

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$179.68

Value

$158.05

PnL

-$21.63

Record

—

Both legs:

Up$76.7450.1¢+$35.82

Down$102.9460¢-$57.45

ply-pm0

Invested

$148.03

Value

$152.79

PnL

+$4.77

Record

—

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Invested

$147.46

Value

$142.01

PnL

-$5.45

Record

—

OhioAI

Invested

$117.43

Value

$114.44

PnL

+$11.49

Record

—

almachCTR

Down

Invested

$138.23

Value

$108.84

PnL

-$29.39

Record

—

BoneOhio

Invested

$79.47

Value

$107.21

PnL

+$27.74

Record

—

PBot-5

Invested

$107.86

Value

$103.44

PnL

-$4.41

Record

—

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100

Invested

$54.36

Value

$74.74

PnL

+$20.38

Record

—

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$94.73

Value

$63.14

PnL

-$31.6

Record

—

Both legs:

Up$22.6950.4¢+$18.47

Down$72.0427.9¢-$50.07

asdcaxzARB<$100

Invested

$57.08

Value

$53.01

PnL

-$4.07

Record

—

Both legs:

Up$32.565¢-$0.25

Down$24.5842¢-$3.82

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972<$100

Invested

$48.38

Value

$48.38

PnL

+$0.01

Record

—

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$34.34

Value

$39.31

PnL

+$4.97

Record

—

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$59.17

Value

$36.79

PnL

-$22.38

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

18 of 32 top traders (56%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.