Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET

20 of 31 top Polymarket traders hold Down (65%) · Down at 100¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 9

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 65%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.3K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

49.3¢ → 100¢

+103% since entry · 20 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

20 of 31 top traders (65%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down20 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares5,229

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Up11 traders

Total Value$207.16

Total Shares986

Combined PnL+$17.4

Down — 65%Up — 35%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 38.4¢	$922.25	$954.14	+$31.89	—
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.6¢	$410.06	$734.04	+$323.98
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.4¢	$512.2	$220.11	-$292.09
BL blue.birds	Downavg 56.4¢	$750.69	$716.45	-$34.24	—
10 1000monkeys	Downavg 53.5¢	$560.84	$588.82	+$27.98	—
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 50.1¢	$500.72	$574.67	+$73.95	—
MO mo-money	Downavg 40.3¢	$261.92	$530.97	+$269.05	—
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 58.2¢	$469.89	$461.62	-$8.27	—
machinelearned	Downavg 41.7¢	$160.23	$352.05	+$191.82	—
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 52.3¢	$264.64	$327.29	+$62.65	—
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.3¢	$163.23	$260.68	+$97.45
└ Up leg	Upavg 25.1¢	$101.4	$66.61	-$34.8
AL almach	Downavg 57.9¢	$215.22	$321.9	+$106.68	—
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 30.1¢	$259.18	$296.47	+$178.05	—
BO bosona	Downavg 36.6¢	$127.76	$281.17	+$153.4	—
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100	Downavg 41.2¢	$279.01	$268.43	-$10.58	—
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.2¢	$225.57	$167.15	-$58.43
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.7¢	$53.44	$101.28	+$47.84
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 52.9¢	$213.41	$225.31	+$11.9	—
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.9¢	$111.31	$175.58	+$64.27
└ Up leg	Upavg 33.9¢	$102.09	$49.72	-$52.37
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 55.1¢	$111.7	$202.79	+$91.09	—
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 33.5¢	$111.38	$135.12	+$23.74	—
└ Down leg	Downavg 37.6¢	$46.4	$103.08	+$56.68
└ Up leg	Upavg 33.5¢	$64.98	$32.03	-$32.94
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 43¢	$44.66	$103.82	+$59.16	—
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Downavg 81¢	$133.08	$100.84	-$31.12	—
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 44¢	$84.84	$100.48	+$15.64	—
└ Down leg	Downavg 44¢	$43.95	$71.5	+$27.55
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.2¢	$40.89	$28.98	-$11.91
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 27.5¢	$84.86	$94.02	+$9.16	—
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100	Downavg 46.6¢	$60.5	$72.85	+$12.35	—
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.6¢	$32.6	$50.05	+$17.45
└ Up leg	Upavg 34.9¢	$27.9	$22.8	-$5.1
OhioAI<$100	Downavg 81.1¢	$94.49	$64.54	-$29.95	—
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100	Upavg 24.4¢	$72.1	$60.42	-$11.68	—
└ Down leg	Downavg 83¢	$35.3	$35.52	+$0.22
└ Up leg	Upavg 24.4¢	$36.8	$24.9	-$11.91
PA Papeasy<$100	Downavg 67¢	$54.5	$60.35	+$5.84	—
ohioism<$100	Downavg 48.1¢	$37.85	$56.3	+$18.45	—
GA gansinimenCTR<$100	Upavg 16¢	$48	$49.5	+$1.5	—

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$922.25

Value

$954.14

PnL

+$31.89

Record

—

Both legs:

Down$410.0646.6¢+$323.98

Up$512.238.4¢-$292.09

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$750.69

Value

$716.45

PnL

-$34.24

Record

—

1000monkeys

Down

Invested

$560.84

Value

$588.82

PnL

+$27.98

Record

—

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$500.72

Value

$574.67

PnL

+$73.95

Record

—

mo-money

Down

Invested

$261.92

Value

$530.97

PnL

+$269.05

Record

—

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$469.89

Value

$461.62

PnL

-$8.27

Record

—

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$160.23

Value

$352.05

PnL

+$191.82

Record

—

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$264.64

Value

$327.29

PnL

+$62.65

Record

—

Both legs:

Down$163.2352.3¢+$97.45

Up$101.425.1¢-$34.8

almach

Down

Invested

$215.22

Value

$321.9

PnL

+$106.68

Record

—

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$259.18

Value

$296.47

PnL

+$178.05

Record

—

bosona

Down

Invested

$127.76

Value

$281.17

PnL

+$153.4

Record

—

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$279.01

Value

$268.43

PnL

-$10.58

Record

—

Both legs:

Down$225.5741.2¢-$58.43

Up$53.4436.7¢+$47.84

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$213.41

Value

$225.31

PnL

+$11.9

Record

—

Both legs:

Down$111.3152.9¢+$64.27

Up$102.0933.9¢-$52.37

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$111.7

Value

$202.79

PnL

+$91.09

Record

—

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$111.38

Value

$135.12

PnL

+$23.74

Record

—

Both legs:

Down$46.437.6¢+$56.68

Up$64.9833.5¢-$32.94

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$44.66

Value

$103.82

PnL

+$59.16

Record

—

drfc4eybh7i8

Down

Invested

$133.08

Value

$100.84

PnL

-$31.12

Record

—

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$84.84

Value

$100.48

PnL

+$15.64

Record

—

Both legs:

Down$43.9544¢+$27.55

Up$40.8940.2¢-$11.91

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Down

Invested

$84.86

Value

$94.02

PnL

+$9.16

Record

—

x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100

Down

Invested

$60.5

Value

$72.85

PnL

+$12.35

Record

—

Both legs:

Down$32.646.6¢+$17.45

Up$27.934.9¢-$5.1

OhioAI<$100

Down

Invested

$94.49

Value

$64.54

PnL

-$29.95

Record

—

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100

Invested

$72.1

Value

$60.42

PnL

-$11.68

Record

—

Both legs:

Invested

$54.5

Value

$60.35

PnL

+$5.84

Record

—

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$37.85

Value

$56.3

PnL

+$18.45

Record

—

gansinimenCTR<$100

Invested

$48

Value

$49.5

PnL

+$1.5

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

20 of 31 top traders (65%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.