Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET
24 of 39 top Polymarket traders hold Down (62%) · Down at 100¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
Down
39
Down 62%
2 arb excluded
$6.3K
-$418.53
85.5¢ → 100¢
+17% since entry · 24 traders
Research grade
NeutralDown at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
24 of 39 top traders (62%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$10.49 | — |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 80¢ | $565.66 | $548.02 | -$17.64 | — |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Downavg 79.2¢ | $414.74 | $367.69 | -$47.04 | — |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 79.2¢ | $216.2 | $214.3 | -$1.89 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 27.8¢ | $198.54 | $153.39 | -$45.15 | |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100 | Upavg 17.7¢ | $416.47 | $324.56 | -$91.91 | — |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 52.6¢ | $99.11 | $172.4 | +$73.29 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 17.7¢ | $317.36 | $152.16 | -$165.19 | |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 85¢ | $453.46 | $320.97 | -$132.48 | — |
10 1000monkeys | Downavg 70.3¢ | $359.34 | $312.66 | -$46.68 | — |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 67.9¢ | $268.24 | $303.65 | +$35.41 | — |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 82.4¢ | $302.42 | $303.38 | +$0.96 | — |
MO mo-money | Downavg 92¢ | $287.13 | $295.89 | +$8.76 | — |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 74.8¢ | $347.82 | $292.28 | -$46.18 | — |
BO bosona | Downavg 92¢ | $256.04 | $211.92 | -$44.13 | — |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658CTR | Upavg 31.2¢ | $246.77 | $183.23 | -$63.53 | — |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 78¢ | $166.02 | $180.28 | +$14.26 | — |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 85.2¢ | $188.4 | $166.16 | -$22.25 | — |
 machinelearned | Downavg 76.7¢ | $176.04 | $160.71 | -$15.32 | — |
38 38791873984189CTR | Upavg 48.3¢ | $142.38 | $148.94 | +$6.55 | — |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $141.57 | $142.29 | +$0.72 | — |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Downavg 93.2¢ | $119.05 | $108.54 | -$9.36 | — |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Downavg 72.4¢ | $71.18 | $87.02 | +$16.8 | — |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Downavg 98¢ | $101.15 | $84.97 | -$16.17 | — |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100 | Downavg 86.4¢ | $95.57 | $82.47 | -$13.09 | — |
PA Papeasy<$100 | Downavg 92¢ | $70.28 | $71.04 | +$0.75 | — |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 65.2¢ | $51.06 | $68.74 | +$17.68 | — |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 83.6¢ | $56.82 | $67.97 | +$11.15 | — |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $66.79 | $61.88 | -$4.91 | — |
Invested
$1,093.31
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$10.49
Record
—
Invested
$565.66
Value
$548.02
PnL
-$17.64
Record
—
Invested
$414.74
Value
$367.69
PnL
-$47.04
Record
—
Both legs:
Invested
$416.47
Value
$324.56
PnL
-$91.91
Record
—
Both legs:
Invested
$453.46
Value
$320.97
PnL
-$132.48
Record
—
Invested
$359.34
Value
$312.66
PnL
-$46.68
Record
—
Invested
$268.24
Value
$303.65
PnL
+$35.41
Record
—
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$302.42
Value
$303.38
PnL
+$0.96
Record
—
Invested
$287.13
Value
$295.89
PnL
+$8.76
Record
—
Invested
$347.82
Value
$292.28
PnL
-$46.18
Record
—
Invested
$256.04
Value
$211.92
PnL
-$44.13
Record
—
Invested
$246.77
Value
$183.23
PnL
-$63.53
Record
—
FairValueMachineInvested
$166.02
Value
$180.28
PnL
+$14.26
Record
—
Invested
$188.4
Value
$166.16
PnL
-$22.25
Record
—
machinelearnedInvested
$176.04
Value
$160.71
PnL
-$15.32
Record
—
Invested
$142.38
Value
$148.94
PnL
+$6.55
Record
—
Invested
$141.57
Value
$142.29
PnL
+$0.72
Record
—
Invested
$119.05
Value
$108.54
PnL
-$9.36
Record
—
Invested
$71.18
Value
$87.02
PnL
+$16.8
Record
—
Invested
$101.15
Value
$84.97
PnL
-$16.17
Record
—
x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100Invested
$95.57
Value
$82.47
PnL
-$13.09
Record
—
Invested
$70.28
Value
$71.04
PnL
+$0.75
Record
—
Invested
$51.06
Value
$68.74
PnL
+$17.68
Record
—
Invested
$56.82
Value
$67.97
PnL
+$11.15
Record
—
Invested
$66.79
Value
$61.88
PnL
-$4.91
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
THG.
Down — $1.1K
blue.birds
Down — $548.02
CrouchPredictions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
ARBArbitrage — excluded
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $320.97
1000monkeys
Down — $312.66
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $303.65
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $303.38
mo-money
Down — $295.89
Bonereaper
Down — $292.28