Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET

27 of 39 top Polymarket traders hold Up (69%) · Up at 100¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 9

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 69%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.3K

Combined PnL

-$772.96

Smart Money Entry

86.9¢ → 100¢

+15% since entry · 27 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

27 of 39 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up27 traders

Total Value$10.0K

Total Shares10,156

Combined PnL-$38.94

Down12 traders

Total Value$929.06

Total Shares5,529

Combined PnL-$734.02

Up — 69%Down — 31%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$17.5	—
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 73.6¢	$925.69	$902.52	-$23.17	—
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 91.6¢	$936.62	$851.36	-$85.26	—
BL blue.birds	Upavg 81¢	$553.35	$589.58	+$36.23	—
10 1000monkeys	Upavg 75.2¢	$525.49	$526.77	+$1.28	—
AL almach	Upavg 99.9¢	$622.42	$495.18	-$127.24	—
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 61¢	$363.36	$444.32	+$97.24	—
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Downavg 49.5¢	$548.1	$393.45	-$154.65	—
machinelearned	Upavg 82.8¢	$334.67	$349.45	+$14.78	—
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 62.6¢	$273.95	$318.48	+$44.53	—
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 99.9¢	$307.7	$307.86	+$0.15	—
BO bosonaARB<$100	Downavg 16.1¢	$376.94	$302.81	-$74.12	—
└ Up leg	Upavg 78.7¢	$179.56	$210.97	+$31.41
└ Down leg	Downavg 16.1¢	$197.38	$91.84	-$105.54
BO BonereaperCTR	Downavg 35.8¢	$318.71	$281.81	-$36.9	—
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658	Upavg 74.3¢	$206.53	$222.06	+$15.53	—
PB PBot-5CTR	Downavg 40.7¢	$201.21	$205.14	+$3.93	—
MO mo-money	Upavg 82¢	$282.93	$203.18	-$79.75	—
OhioRiskManagement	Upavg 98.2¢	$147.36	$147.75	+$0.39	—
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Upavg 65.2¢	$120.38	$146.68	+$26.3	—
PA Papeasy	Upavg 89.8¢	$115.25	$121.22	+$5.97	—
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 61.4¢	$140.34	$118.51	-$21.83	—
HS Hsilverbasher	Upavg 83.7¢	$107.2	$113.99	+$6.8	—
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Upavg 94.8¢	$192.27	$109.74	-$6.97	—
pspspsps5	Upavg 95.8¢	$101.08	$102.38	+$1.29	—
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 52¢	$81.37	$84.48	+$12.35	—
BoneOhio<$100	Upavg 94¢	$77.24	$74.99	-$2.25	—

THG.

Invested

$3,465

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$17.5

Record

—

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$925.69

Value

$902.52

PnL

-$23.17

Record

—

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$936.62

Value

$851.36

PnL

-$85.26

Record

—

blue.birds

Invested

$553.35

Value

$589.58

PnL

+$36.23

Record

—

1000monkeys

Invested

$525.49

Value

$526.77

PnL

+$1.28

Record

—

almach

Invested

$622.42

Value

$495.18

PnL

-$127.24

Record

—

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$363.36

Value

$444.32

PnL

+$97.24

Record

—

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Down

Invested

$548.1

Value

$393.45

PnL

-$154.65

Record

—

machinelearned

Invested

$334.67

Value

$349.45

PnL

+$14.78

Record

—

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$273.95

Value

$318.48

PnL

+$44.53

Record

—

0x50f7

Invested

$307.7

Value

$307.86

PnL

+$0.15

Record

—

bosonaARB<$100

Down

Invested

$376.94

Value

$302.81

PnL

-$74.12

Record

—

Both legs:

Up$179.5678.7¢+$31.41

Down$197.3816.1¢-$105.54

BonereaperCTR

Down

Invested

$318.71

Value

$281.81

PnL

-$36.9

Record

—

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Invested

$206.53

Value

$222.06

PnL

+$15.53

Record

—

PBot-5CTR

Down

Invested

$201.21

Value

$205.14

PnL

+$3.93

Record

—

mo-money

Invested

$282.93

Value

$203.18

PnL

-$79.75

Record

—

OhioRiskManagement

Invested

$147.36

Value

$147.75

PnL

+$0.39

Record

—

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Invested

$120.38

Value

$146.68

PnL

+$26.3

Record

—

Papeasy

Invested

$115.25

Value

$121.22

PnL

+$5.97

Record

—

ply-pm0

Invested

$140.34

Value

$118.51

PnL

-$21.83

Record

—

Hsilverbasher

Invested

$107.2

Value

$113.99

PnL

+$6.8

Record

—

drfc4eybh7i8

Invested

$192.27

Value

$109.74

PnL

-$6.97

Record

—

pspspsps5

Invested

$101.08

Value

$102.38

PnL

+$1.29

Record

—

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$81.37

Value

$84.48

PnL

+$12.35

Record

—

BoneOhio<$100

Invested

$77.24

Value

$74.99

PnL

-$2.25

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

27 of 39 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.