Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET

24 of 38 top Polymarket traders hold Up (63%) · Up at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 9

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.4K

Combined PnL

-$932.24

Smart Money Entry

75.1¢ → 100¢

+33% since entry · 24 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

24 of 38 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up24 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares4,542

Combined PnL+$139.03

Down14 traders

Total Value$784.38

Total Shares5,338

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Up — 63%Down — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 80.1¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$155.97	—
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 67.8¢	$987.98	$938.46	-$49.52	—
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972	Upavg 82.9¢	$419.13	$447.99	+$28.87	—
10 1000monkeys	Upavg 67.7¢	$329.01	$327.12	-$1.9	—
BL blue.birds	Upavg 62.3¢	$351.8	$238.28	-$18.52	—
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR	Downavg 31.8¢	$388.37	$237.06	-$151.31	—
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Upavg 81¢	$187.74	$220.94	+$33.2	—
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 59.3¢	$197.85	$191.36	-$6.48	—
└ Up leg	Upavg 59.3¢	$115.76	$131.86	+$16.1
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.8¢	$82.09	$59.5	-$22.59
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 86.5¢	$141.44	$131.66	-$5.22	—
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Upavg 66¢	$117.16	$118.96	+$1.81	—
GO GoodFallenCTR	Downavg 33.1¢	$140.39	$101.95	-$22.9	—
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Upavg 89.9¢	$124.65	$97.28	-$27.37	—
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 50¢	$78.01	$87.66	+$9.65	—
MO mo-moneyCTR	Downavg 40.6¢	$391.7	$84.52	-$307.18	—
FairValueMachineCTR<$100	Downavg 39.8¢	$79.74	$74.09	-$5.65	—
ohioism<$100	Upavg 65.7¢	$48.56	$66.5	+$17.95	—
AL almachCTR	Downavg 28¢	$286.25	$66.34	-$219.92	—
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Upavg 87.2¢	$184.88	$59.3	-$18.62	—
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 87.4¢	$48.93	$55.92	+$7	—
PB PBot-5<$100	Upavg 89.7¢	$57.65	$54.61	-$3.04	—
OhioAI<$100	Upavg 59.7¢	$47.72	$53.11	+$5.4	—
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 88¢	$66.76	$53.03	-$13.73	—
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658CTR<$100	Downavg 39.7¢	$47.1	$52.16	+$5.06	—
AS asdcaxz<$100	Upavg 78.2¢	$46.9	$51	+$4.1	—
BoneOhio<$100	Upavg 65¢	$48.45	$50.31	+$1.86	—

Bonereaper

Invested

$1,103.59

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$155.97

Record

—

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$987.98

Value

$938.46

PnL

-$49.52

Record

—

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972

Invested

$419.13

Value

$447.99

PnL

+$28.87

Record

—

1000monkeys

Invested

$329.01

Value

$327.12

PnL

-$1.9

Record

—

blue.birds

Invested

$351.8

Value

$238.28

PnL

-$18.52

Record

—

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR

Down

Invested

$388.37

Value

$237.06

PnL

-$151.31

Record

—

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Invested

$187.74

Value

$220.94

PnL

+$33.2

Record

—

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$197.85

Value

$191.36

PnL

-$6.48

Record

—

Both legs:

Up$115.7659.3¢+$16.1

Down$82.0944.8¢-$22.59

wzbbb

Invested

$141.44

Value

$131.66

PnL

-$5.22

Record

—

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Invested

$117.16

Value

$118.96

PnL

+$1.81

Record

—

GoodFallenCTR

Down

Invested

$140.39

Value

$101.95

PnL

-$22.9

Record

—

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Invested

$124.65

Value

$97.28

PnL

-$27.37

Record

—

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$78.01

Value

$87.66

PnL

+$9.65

Record

—

mo-moneyCTR

Down

Invested

$391.7

Value

$84.52

PnL

-$307.18

Record

—

FairValueMachineCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$79.74

Value

$74.09

PnL

-$5.65

Record

—

ohioism<$100

Invested

$48.56

Value

$66.5

PnL

+$17.95

Record

—

almachCTR

Down

Invested

$286.25

Value

$66.34

PnL

-$219.92

Record

—

drfc4eybh7i8

Invested

$184.88

Value

$59.3

PnL

-$18.62

Record

—

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$48.93

Value

$55.92

PnL

+$7

Record

—

PBot-5<$100

Invested

$57.65

Value

$54.61

PnL

-$3.04

Record

—

OhioAI<$100

Invested

$47.72

Value

$53.11

PnL

+$5.4

Record

—

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$66.76

Value

$53.03

PnL

-$13.73

Record

—

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$47.1

Value

$52.16

PnL

+$5.06

Record

—

asdcaxz<$100

Invested

$46.9

Value

$51

PnL

+$4.1

Record

—

BoneOhio<$100

Invested

$48.45

Value

$50.31

PnL

+$1.86

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

24 of 38 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.