Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET

20 of 34 top Polymarket traders hold Up (59%) · Up at 100¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 9

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 59%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.6K

Combined PnL

-$174.36

Smart Money Entry

85.5¢ → 100¢

+17% since entry · 20 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

20 of 34 top traders (59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up20 traders

Total Value$8.3K

Total Shares8,578

Combined PnL+$83.63

Down14 traders

Total Value$220.11

Total Shares3,206

Combined PnL-$258

Up — 59%Down — 41%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$33.25	—
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 86.5¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$37.83	—
BL blue.birds	Upavg 83.5¢	$570.71	$625.3	+$54.59	—
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 80.4¢	$555.32	$485.9	-$69.41	—
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 48.9¢	$369.41	$439.5	+$70.09	—
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Upavg 59.2¢	$242.15	$310.47	+$68.32	—
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 88.4¢	$327.17	$305.23	-$21.94	—
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 81.5¢	$305.62	$282.35	-$5.23	—
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658	Upavg 73.2¢	$316.81	$277.96	-$38.85	—
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 81.1¢	$348.46	$259.03	-$89.43	—
10 1000monkeys	Upavg 78.6¢	$245.28	$249.52	+$4.24	—
machinelearned	Upavg 75.5¢	$95.33	$119.47	+$24.15	—
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Upavg 86.7¢	$115.65	$107.3	-$7.25	—
PL ply-pm0<$100	Upavg 73.3¢	$63.48	$61.57	-$1.91	—
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 84.2¢	$51.24	$60.79	+$9.55	—
BO bosonaCTR	Downavg 11¢	$102.66	$56.17	-$46.49	—
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 39¢	$54.2	$55.58	+$1.38	—
└ Down leg	Downavg 39¢	$28.6	$34.1	+$5.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.8¢	$25.6	$21.48	-$4.12
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Downavg 11.2¢	$88.76	$47.65	-$41.11	—
AL almachCTR	Downavg 15.4¢	$106.89	$38.22	-$68.67	—
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 70¢	$28.2	$38.07	+$9.87	—
GO GoodFallenCTR<$100	Downavg 17¢	$47.86	$28.64	-$19.21	—
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 68.5¢	$17.02	$20.88	+$3.85	—
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100	Downavg 33¢	$36.22	$19.43	-$16.79	—
pspspsps5<$100	Upavg 94¢	$16.76	$15.48	-$1.28	—
OhioAI<$100	Upavg 72¢	$16.5	$14.99	+$2.69	—

THG.

Invested

$3,465

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$33.25

Record

—

Bonereaper

Invested

$1,087.11

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$37.83

Record

—

blue.birds

Invested

$570.71

Value

$625.3

PnL

+$54.59

Record

—

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$555.32

Value

$485.9

PnL

-$69.41

Record

—

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$369.41

Value

$439.5

PnL

+$70.09

Record

—

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Invested

$242.15

Value

$310.47

PnL

+$68.32

Record

—

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$327.17

Value

$305.23

PnL

-$21.94

Record

—

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$305.62

Value

$282.35

PnL

-$5.23

Record

—

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Invested

$316.81

Value

$277.96

PnL

-$38.85

Record

—

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$348.46

Value

$259.03

PnL

-$89.43

Record

—

1000monkeys

Invested

$245.28

Value

$249.52

PnL

+$4.24

Record

—

machinelearned

Invested

$95.33

Value

$119.47

PnL

+$24.15

Record

—

drfc4eybh7i8

Invested

$115.65

Value

$107.3

PnL

-$7.25

Record

—

ply-pm0<$100

Invested

$63.48

Value

$61.57

PnL

-$1.91

Record

—

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$51.24

Value

$60.79

PnL

+$9.55

Record

—

bosonaCTR

Down

Invested

$102.66

Value

$56.17

PnL

-$46.49

Record

—

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$54.2

Value

$55.58

PnL

+$1.38

Record

—

Both legs:

Invested

$88.76

Value

$47.65

PnL

-$41.11

Record

—

almachCTR

Down

Invested

$106.89

Value

$38.22

PnL

-$68.67

Record

—

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$28.2

Value

$38.07

PnL

+$9.87

Record

—

GoodFallenCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$47.86

Value

$28.64

PnL

-$19.21

Record

—

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$17.02

Value

$20.88

PnL

+$3.85

Record

—

asdcaxzCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$36.22

Value

$19.43

PnL

-$16.79

Record

—

pspspsps5<$100

Invested

$16.76

Value

$15.48

PnL

-$1.28

Record

—

OhioAI<$100

Invested

$16.5

Value

$14.99

PnL

+$2.69

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

20 of 34 top traders (59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.