Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET

22 of 33 top Polymarket traders hold Down (67%) · Down at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 9

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.5K

Combined PnL

$283.3

Smart Money Entry

91.2¢ → 100¢

+10% since entry · 22 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

22 of 33 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down22 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares3,784

Combined PnL-$104.66

Up11 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares4,428

Combined PnL+$387.96

Down — 67%Up — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 97.1¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$33.58	—
MO mo-moneyCTR	Upavg 19.3¢	$201.88	$527.22	+$325.34	—
AL almachCTR	Upavg 18.1¢	$170	$475.57	+$305.58	—
10 1000monkeys	Downavg 71.9¢	$288.16	$296.41	+$8.26	—
BL blue.birds	Downavg 76.4¢	$278.98	$254.95	-$21.2	—
machinelearnedCTR	Upavg 36.3¢	$163	$201.5	+$38.5	—
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR	Upavg 38.8¢	$88.04	$107.91	+$19.87	—
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100	Upavg 36.8¢	$122.72	$98.55	-$24.17	—
└ Down leg	Downavg 69¢	$58.3	$71.4	+$13.1
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.8¢	$64.42	$27.14	-$37.27
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972	Downavg 96¢	$113.86	$96.68	-$17.18	—
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Upavg 17.1¢	$185.5	$89.03	-$78.67	—
Polkadot-FrogCTR	Upavg 36¢	$201.59	$77.48	-$60.42	—
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR	Upavg 22.7¢	$133.54	$70.04	-$47.42	—
HO hoodquant<$100	Downavg 98¢	$61.29	$61.6	+$0.31	—
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 85.5¢	$51.05	$59.67	+$8.62	—
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 85.6¢	$55.2	$59.38	+$4.17	—
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 70¢	$35	$49.98	+$14.98	—
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 88.4¢	$44.2	$49.98	+$5.77	—
x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100	Downavg 83.8¢	$52.24	$48.7	-$3.54	—
WZ wzbbb<$100	Downavg 92.9¢	$68.2	$46.49	-$21.71	—
GO GoodFallenCTR<$100	Upavg 18.9¢	$25.32	$45.81	+$20.49	—
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Downavg 85.6¢	$45.89	$42.46	-$3.43	—
BO bosonaCTR	Upavg 25.6¢	$156.67	$39.71	-$116.97	—
PA Papeasy<$100	Downavg 58¢	$43.5	$37.12	-$6.37	—
PL ply-pm0CTR<$100	Upavg 26¢	$39.1	$30.77	-$8.32	—
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 94¢	$32.7	$25.98	-$6.73	—

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$2,508.24

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$33.58

Record

—

mo-moneyCTR

Invested

$201.88

Value

$527.22

PnL

+$325.34

Record

—

almachCTR

Invested

$170

Value

$475.57

PnL

+$305.58

Record

—

1000monkeys

Down

Invested

$288.16

Value

$296.41

PnL

+$8.26

Record

—

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$278.98

Value

$254.95

PnL

-$21.2

Record

—

machinelearnedCTR

Invested

$163

Value

$201.5

PnL

+$38.5

Record

—

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR

Invested

$88.04

Value

$107.91

PnL

+$19.87

Record

—

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100

Invested

$122.72

Value

$98.55

PnL

-$24.17

Record

—

Both legs:

Down$58.369¢+$13.1

Up$64.4236.8¢-$37.27

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972

Down

Invested

$113.86

Value

$96.68

PnL

-$17.18

Record

—

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Invested

$185.5

Value

$89.03

PnL

-$78.67

Record

—

Polkadot-FrogCTR

Invested

$201.59

Value

$77.48

PnL

-$60.42

Record

—

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR

Invested

$133.54

Value

$70.04

PnL

-$47.42

Record

—

hoodquant<$100

Down

Invested

$61.29

Value

$61.6

PnL

+$0.31

Record

—

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$51.05

Value

$59.67

PnL

+$8.62

Record

—

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$55.2

Value

$59.38

PnL

+$4.17

Record

—

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$35

Value

$49.98

PnL

+$14.98

Record

—

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$44.2

Value

$49.98

PnL

+$5.77

Record

—

x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100

Down

Invested

$52.24

Value

$48.7

PnL

-$3.54

Record

—

wzbbb<$100

Down

Invested

$68.2

Value

$46.49

PnL

-$21.71

Record

—

GoodFallenCTR<$100

Invested

$25.32

Value

$45.81

PnL

+$20.49

Record

—

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Down

Invested

$45.89

Value

$42.46

PnL

-$3.43

Record

—

bosonaCTR

Invested

$156.67

Value

$39.71

PnL

-$116.97

Record

—

Papeasy<$100

Down

Invested

$43.5

Value

$37.12

PnL

-$6.37

Record

—

ply-pm0CTR<$100

Invested

$39.1

Value

$30.77

PnL

-$8.32

Record

—

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$32.7

Value

$25.98

PnL

-$6.73

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

22 of 33 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.